Hinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must be doing that "strawberry" thing again? To us humans, A-l-t-m-a-n is not H-i-n-t-o-n.
> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance
I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years.
Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. For Mankind's Last Invention, I would argue that it is.
Indeed! Your comment was the first thing I thought of when I heard the news and I thought of replying too but assumed you might not have enabled notifications Hilarious, all in all!
When he said this was he imagining an "elderly but distinguished scientist" who is riding an insanely inflated bubble of hype and a bajillion dollars of VC backing that incentivize him to make these claims?
It doesn't quite have the same ring to it: "If a young, distinguished business executive says something is possible, when that something greatly effects his bottom line..."