[khafra]

> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance

I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years.

Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. For Mankind's Last Invention, I would argue that it is.

[randomdata]

You don't know because he did not say. He said 20 years, which are more than a few.