[benterix]

> In case of weakening of NATO, they are the foremost candidates for the next Special Military Operation.

I guess the odds of Trump winning are much lower than a couple of months ago. And even if he wins, if he follows with his stupid plan of giving Ukraine to Putin, he will be criticized by all sides. So losing a Baltic state would be another bitter blow and he probably would want to avoid that as he wants to appear "strong".

Also, NATO is not just the USA. The remaining countries had no choice but to increase their military spending and will continue to support Ukraine until the last dime knowing that the fall of this country will just make Putin more aggressive. We can't just let this happen, with the next American administration or without.

[inglor_cz]

It is not really just about Trump. It is quite obvious at least since Obama that US strategic interests are reorienting towards Southeast Asia, which is understandable as half of humanity lives there.

And even with a friendly administration, it can feasibly happen that there will be more crises unfolding at the same time than the US is capable of efficiently addressing. (Say, Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan.)

I wonder how much of a choice the other countries have. Being a European and observing European political patterns, I am very sure that Finland, Sweden, Denmark and most of the former Soviet satellites will continue to support Ukraine because they know what is at stake for them. The UK may as well, given that the dislike between England and Russia goes a long way back.

But there are influential people in Germany (and I am not talking about the AfD here, but about the industrial lobby) constantly pushing in the back rooms for reconciliation with Russia at any cost, because high energy costs have made a mess of the German economy, and I can see something like a repeat of the Munich betrayal of 1938 in the future. At this phase of the war, Putin would be open to such an agreement with Germany. Not even his wildest plans foresee a re-subjugation of the former GDR, so Germany risks "nothing" (well, a lot of goodwill east of the Oder, but that may be an acceptable tradeoff for the businesspeople).

And the more distant countries such as Spain or the Netherlands or Belgium aren't really that much interested in Eastern European affairs, all the verbal proclamations notwithstanding. Although NL has some unsettled business against Russia with regards to that shot down airliner.

[anal_reactor]

While I can see populist parties pushing for an agreement with Russia, it would be a ridiculous move because it would completely split EU into two parts: Russia-lovers (countries that don't border Russia) and Russia-haters (countries that do border Russia).

[inglor_cz]

I agree that it would be a ridiculous move that would split the EU, but people have done such things in the past anyway.

The French discarded all the credibility gained through their extremely bloody victory in WWI by not helping Czechoslovakia and Poland in 1938-9. Prior to that, France was admired and followed by a dozen countries in Central and Eastern Europe which sought to emulate it. Nowadays, meh. It has been almost 90 years since the moment of French weakness and the trust is still not repaired.

Putin himself started a major land war with barely 200 000 soldiers against the second largest country in Europe. Any serious military planner would say that it is not nearly enough to ensure victory, and many people including me in fact considered the whole thing a bluff just by looking at the inadequate numbers. Yet here we are, in precisely the sort of unwinnable war of attrition that is the result of such a bad decision. It may yet end Russia as a power, not directly through the force of arms, but through later destabilization.

People are experts on stupid decisions, especially if they feel in a Zugzwang. I am not sure what German social democrats are going to do if their labor unions start to seriously push them. The threat of losing important factory jobs is potentially very destabilizing for the established left wing of the German political spectrum.