[hakanderyal]

Software engineering contains a lot more than just writing code.

If we somehow get AGI, it'll change everything, not just SWE.

If not, my belief is that there will be a lot more demand for good SWEs to harness the power of LLMs, not less. Use them to get better at it faster.

[fsloth]

Agree, SWE as a profession is not going anywhere, unless we AGI, and that would mean all the rules change anyway.

Actually now is really good time to get to SWE. The craft contains lots of pointless cruft that LLM:s cut through like knife through hot butter.

I’m actually enjoying my job now more than ever since I dont’t need to pretend to like the abysmal tools the industry forces on us (like git), and can focus mostly on value adding tasks. The amount of tiresome shoveling has decreased considerably.

[whynotminot]

I'd agree with this take. Everyone is so pessimistic about LLMs, but I've really enjoyed this new era.

A lot of the tasks that used to take considerable time are so much faster and less tedious now. It still puts a smile on my face to tell an LLM to write me scripts that do X Y and Z. Or hand it code and ask for unit tests.

And I feel like I'm more likely to reach for work that I might otherwise shrink from / outside my usual comfort zone, because asking questions of an LLM is just so much better than doing trivial beginner tutorials or diving through 15 vaguely related stack overflow questions (I wonder if SO has seen any significant dip in traffic over the last year).

Most people I've seen disappointed with these tools are doing way more advanced work than I appear to be doing in my day to day work. They fail me too here and there, but more often than not I'm able to get at least something helpful or useful out of them.

[fsloth]

Exactly this. The menial tasks become less of a burden and you can just power through them with LLM generated scripts.

If someone expects the LLM to be the senior contributor in novel algorithm development, they will be disappointed for sure. But there is so, so much stuff to do to idiot savant junior trainees with infinite patience.

[Workaccount2]

I don't think anyone is worried about SWE work going away, I think the concern is if SWE's will still be able to command cushy salaries and working conditions.

[packetlost]

I think the industry will bifurcate along the axis of "doing actually novel stuff" vs slinging DB records and displaying web pages. The latter is what I'd expect to get disrupted, if anything, but the former isn't going away unless real AGI is created. The people on the left of that split are going to be worth a lot more because the pipeline to get there will be even harder than it was before.

[nyarlathotep_]

> "doing actually novel stuff" vs slinging DB records and displaying web pages. The latter is what I'd expect to get disrupted,

Unfortunately the latter is the vast majority of software jobs.

[packetlost]

Yeah, but honestly I'm ok with the industry shrinking along that axis.

[ozim]

slinging DB records and displaying web pages is already disrupted. Wordpress, Shopify, SAP so people without tech background can click around and have stuff done.

If someone is building web shop from scratch because he wants to sell some products, he is doing something wrong. If someone builds web shop to compete with Shopify he also is doing something wrong most likely.

[matwood]

Salaries will only change if tech loses it's leverage on the economy. Think of it this way, if Google can operate Google with only 10% of its current staff, then there will be other Googles popping up. The downward pressure on salaries will start with the downward pressure on tech overall. I'm not sure I see this happening anytime soon because humanity is so good at using every resource available.

[tivert]

> I don't think anyone is worried about SWE work going away, I think the concern is if SWE's will still be able to command cushy salaries and working conditions.

It's very important to human progress that all jobs have poor working conditions and shit pay. High salaries and good conditions are evidence of inefficiency. Precarity should be the norm, and I'm glad AI is going to give it to us.

[Workaccount2]

Software engineering pay is an outlier for STEM fields. It would not be surprising at all if SWE work fell into the ~$80-120k camp even with 10+ years experience.

They won't go broke, but landing a $175k work from home job with platinum tier benefits will be near impossible. $110K with a hybrid schedule and mediocre benefits will be very common even for seniors.

[nyarlathotep_]

That's actually totally reasonable, but what's the end result for housing markets in areas saturated by these kinds of gigs now.

Would there be reasonably priced houses in Seattle/SF? Can't see that happening

[bornfreddy]

Sarcasm or cynicism?

[baq]

Capitalism.

Btw communism is capitalism without systemic awareness of inefficiencies.

[ruthmarx]

Capitalism doesn't dictate poor working conditions at all. Lack of regulation certainly does though.

[tivert]

> Capitalism doesn't dictate poor working conditions at all. Lack of regulation certainly does though.

It totally does. Regulation is basically opposed to capitalism working as designed.

[cs391231]

This thing is doing planning and ascending the task management ladder. It's not just spitting out code anymore.

[parasubvert]

AI Automated planning and action are an old (45+ year) field in AI with a rich history and a lot of successes. Another breakthrough in this area isn't going to eliminate engineering as a profession. The problem space is much bigger than what AI can tackle alone, it helps with emancipation for the humans that know how to include it in their workflows.

[hakanderyal]

Yes, and they will get better. Billions are being poured into them to improve.

Yet I'm comparing these to the problems I solve every day and I don't see any plausible way they can replace me. But I'm using them for tasks that would have required me to hire a junior.

Make that what you will.

[noshitsherlock]

Yes, if "efficiency" is your top concern, but I'd much prefer working with an actual person than just a computer. I mean, God forbid I'm only useful for what I can produce, and disposable when I reach my expiration date. I would like to see a twilight zone rendition of an AI dystopia where all the slow, ignorant and bothersome humans are replaced by lifeless AI

[hakanderyal]

It's not just about efficiency. I don't have the means to hire a junior right now, but 20$ is a no brainer.

[baq]

Time to re-read The Culture. Not everything has to end in a dystopia.

[candiddevmike]

Management will be easier to replace than SWEs. I'm thinking there will come a time, similar to the show Mrs Davis, where AI will direct human efforts within organizations. AI will understand its limits and create tasks/requirements for human specialists to handle.

[al_borland]

My first thought with this is that AI would be directed to figure out exactly how little people are willing to work for, and how long, before they break.

I hope I’m wrong, and it instead shows that more pay and fewer hours lead to a better economy, because people have money and time to spend it… and output isn’t impacted enough to matter.

[fsloth]

Sure. But the added value of SWE is not ”spitting code”. Let’s see if I need to calibrate my optimism once I take the new model to a spin.