I don't think anyone is worried about SWE work going away, I think the concern is if SWE's will still be able to command cushy salaries and working conditions.
I think the industry will bifurcate along the axis of "doing actually novel stuff" vs slinging DB records and displaying web pages. The latter is what I'd expect to get disrupted, if anything, but the former isn't going away unless real AGI is created. The people on the left of that split are going to be worth a lot more because the pipeline to get there will be even harder than it was before.
slinging DB records and displaying web pages is already disrupted. Wordpress, Shopify, SAP so people without tech background can click around and have stuff done.
If someone is building web shop from scratch because he wants to sell some products, he is doing something wrong.
If someone builds web shop to compete with Shopify he also is doing something wrong most likely.
Salaries will only change if tech loses it's leverage on the economy. Think of it this way, if Google can operate Google with only 10% of its current staff, then there will be other Googles popping up. The downward pressure on salaries will start with the downward pressure on tech overall. I'm not sure I see this happening anytime soon because humanity is so good at using every resource available.
> I don't think anyone is worried about SWE work going away, I think the concern is if SWE's will still be able to command cushy salaries and working conditions.
It's very important to human progress that all jobs have poor working conditions and shit pay. High salaries and good conditions are evidence of inefficiency. Precarity should be the norm, and I'm glad AI is going to give it to us.
Software engineering pay is an outlier for STEM fields. It would not be surprising at all if SWE work fell into the ~$80-120k camp even with 10+ years experience.
They won't go broke, but landing a $175k work from home job with platinum tier benefits will be near impossible. $110K with a hybrid schedule and mediocre benefits will be very common even for seniors.
That's not true at all. That's just some propaganda college kids and the like keep repeating. Most other western countries are capitalist, have much stronger regulation than the US and are all the better for it.