[dgfitz]

Is there some sort of betting line I can make money off with all this? “-150 a new model isn’t released in the next month claiming it is currently the best at something” would let me retire years early.

If there is another line that said “+500 thus model will be forgotten and useless in 6 months” could take my retirement from years to months.

[anitil]

I believe Manifold does this sort of thing, though I've never used it myself.

[tfehring]

Manifold [0] has markets on this sort of thing, but it primarily uses fake money. (They're working on a real-money "sweepstakes" thing, which I'm not super familiar with.) If you're outside the US and looking for a real-money market, Polymarket [1] is probably your best bet. In the US, real-money prediction market contracts are regulated by the CFTC in the US, so availability of contracts is pretty limited; Kalshi [2] would be the most likely option, but I doubt they have anything on this topic.

[0] https://manifold.markets

[1] https://polymarket.com

[2] https://kalshi.com/

[pants2]

Your best bet in the US is to use Polymarket with a VPN

[thefourthchime]

-180 it’s a wrapper around alphafold with some pre prompt.

[talldayo]

> “-150 a new model isn’t released in the next month claiming it is currently the best at something” would let me retire years early.

An optimist and their seed funding are easily parted.