[ekianjo]

These stories about the "post-PC future" always make me laugh, I still dont see people working on iPads in real offices where you do REAL work.

The future of computing is going to be fragmented. Not unified by a single tablet model.

Every time something new comes up we always get the same BS: "netbooks are going to replace computers". "iPhones are going to replace computers", "ipads are going to replace computers".

Give me a break.

[nielsandersen]

I agree with your idea that the future will be a fragmented one. And obviously there are still a lot of desktops and laptops at offices.

In my work for a digital agency we have a lot of projects going with tablets (well let's be honest it's all iPads) to work as replacement for laptops for certain processes and situations. There are so many real-life processes happening today where toting a laptop around is really not ideal and tablets have some awesome characteristics which make them a great second or third device for some job descriptions, but also a first device for others.

For pump installers for instance a laptop is a pain in the ass. They all have one, but they never bring it out of the car with them because it's heavy, has poor battery life and is really impractical when you're working in a dusty, dark environment. A tablet on the other hand serves them well. They can bring it with them. Hang it on a pipe somewhere and watch that installation video or look up that manual that they are needing. Battery life is so that they don't have to charge it all week. Everybody wins.

Don't mean to get carried away, but the world is really full of people doing "real work" where laptops and desktops are just not the best solution.

[ekianjo]

> Don't mean to get carried away, but the world is really full of people doing "real work" where laptops and desktops are just not the best solution.

I'm sure there is. But by far, most businesses still need laptops and proper desktops to work. Sometime you need a big screen. Most of the time you want to have a keyboard, a good one, to type fast. You want to have the precision of the mouse of do things on screen. ANd you need power. A portable device, no matter how good it is, is constrained by ventilation, temperature limits, processor speed, space, and so on. For the price of an iPad you get a much more powerful desktop computer.

Tablets have advantages as consumer devices, as presentation devices, as "reader / browsing" devices. They are convenient. I do not deny that. But they simply won't replace everything else.

And the reason why the iPad sells so well is because it's a disposable device at heart. Whenever a new iPad comes out, most of the previous iPad owners drop their older version to get the new one. (same for the iPhone, by the way). Usually computer users keep their PCs active for way longer than that.

[nielsandersen]

I agree with you completely that desktops and laptops aren't going anywhere for the forseeable future.

For a lot of job functions power is just not necessary.

There is a lot happening right now with especially the iPad as a tool for mobile professionals, service sector jobs and for blue-collar work functions where access to data and light data entry is needed but a quad core is total overkill.

An easy to use OS and a decent touchscreen is a great way of streamlining a lot of processes which currently involve filling out forms and carrying around manuals and forms and what not.

Us office types still see it as that third device that does nothing that our laptop or smartphone can't do, but for those who have neither of those provided by the workplace it's a real boon.

[keithpeter]

"But by far, most businesses still need laptops and proper desktops to work. Sometime you need a big screen. Most of the time you want to have a keyboard, a good one, to type fast. You want to have the precision of the mouse of do things on screen."

Absolutely, I need those things... for about 15% of my working time.

I suspect lot of people in roles where access to information is needed with minimal modification or addition to the data could work with other devices.

[ekianjo]

> Absolutely, I need those things... for about 15% of my working time.

By curiosity, what do you do the rest of your working time?

[keithpeter]

I talk to people. (I'm a teacher)

[ekianjo]

Allright. In that case I cannot argue.

[gwright]

I doubt that most (i.e. > 50%) of iPad and iPhone users replace them on an annual basis. Would love to see some solid data on the actual numbers though.

[ekianjo]

I don't know. I may be suffering from sample bias, but around me, everyone who have iPads and iPhone change models as soon as one comes out. And they feel an URGE to do it. For reasons I cannot understand.

I've also heard the same story from other friends in different places, so I can only assume that a large amount of pre-iPad owners seem to buy a new one systematically. I don't have market research data to prove anything, however.

[flatline3]

The new one is better. Faster processor, better screen, more RAM, etc. Not too hard to figure out why people upgrade.

The devices aren't disposable, either. They hold value, and it's easy enough to sell the old one. Nobody is throwing away an iPad.

[ekianjo]

The URGE to get a new one is irrational. We dont see that on PC when a new graphic card comes out or something. The iPad replacement pace is massive and hysterical.

[keithpeter]

"I still dont see people working on iPads in real offices where you do REAL work."

I do see people working with iPads quite often. Some examples; building and plant surveyor specifying changes in our building; teaching inspectors making notes during a lesson observation; local middle managers pulling down reports from Intranet during meeting; managerial types on train every morning reading documents and annotating them on way into work.

I don't think these people only use iPads, but I do think they use their tablets as data gathering tools and annotation tools. I suspect desktops will morph into workstations with huge monitors and highish prices, and that laptops will become a high end option for those of us who prefer a keyboard/screen combo.

Some evidence for that could be the success of applications that make it easy to syncronise data.

Having a Windows tablet device might make things easier for people to move data along.

PS: Am I the only one worried by that strange pantographic construction that supports the tablet in 'laptop' mode?

[ekianjo]

> I do see people working with iPads quite often.

Maybe I should clarify what I mean by "working". For me, reading information on a screen is not working. Work is when you add value, so when you actually produce something with the information you have. An iPad may be a great tool to READ informatio, at the most take notes, but to produce something it is pretty poor and limited in many aspects. Yes, you can always manage to do something with it, but it's just a big compromise versus using the right device for the right job.

> I suspect desktops will morph into workstations with huge monitors and highish prices, and that laptops will become a high end option for those of us who prefer a keyboard/screen combo.

There is no reason for desktops to become more expensive, though. As long as they are built with mass-market technology, of course.

[keithpeter]

"For me, reading information on a screen is not working. Work is when you add value, so when you actually produce something with the information you have."

The total market for portable computing devices is growing, and the replacement of e.g. paper manuals by tablets might be one of the reasons. This is work by my definition.

"There is no reason for desktops to become more expensive, though. As long as they are built with mass-market technology, of course."

Many desktops in companies can probably be replaced by tablets/mobile devices. I'm in an open plan staffroom with 60 desks and 60 PCs. Many of my fellow teachers would be very comfortable with a tablet that could talk to a projector somehow and some good writing sketching software. We could halve the number of desktops easily, perhaps just have 10 on desks in the side of the room.

Multiply that all over and you have a reduced market in numbers for desktops.

PS: not sure why your comment is being downvoted, just depends on definition of 'work'. Mine is different.

[antidoh]

"Many of my fellow teachers would be very comfortable with a tablet that could talk to a projector somehow and some good writing sketching software."

That's probably good for short and "casual" writing. But for long distance writing, most people can type much faster than they can write, and most people can type much more legibly than they can write.

Which is hugely ironic, given the bandwagon of reducing emphasis on handwriting skills in favor of keyboarding skills in schools. For devices without keyboards, we'll either be using glass keyboards with their tactile inaccuracy, or styluses with OCR software behind them that will have to contend with increasingly terrible handwriting.

[antidoh]

"I still dont see people working on iPads in real offices where you do REAL work."

Agree. Apple software has very little Enterprise presence.

I see a few people bring iPads to meetings (they could be Androids, but I assume iPad). They quietly look at them once in awhile. Whatever it is they do with them has no effect on the rest of the meeting.

Contrast that with people bringing their laptops to meetings, connecting to the corporate network, and then editing the corporate collection of bits (databases and documents) live and collaboratively. That's done with Microsoft software.

Unless Apple or another player decides to go full Enterprise, that part of MS will be around for a long time, running on whatever supports that.

[tintin]

You are right. Also take a look at the development of tablets.

In the beginning they were small low-res tablets. But people wanted a bigger screen -> bigger tablets with high-res screens. But people hated to type on the screen -> keyboards added. But people hated to hold it all the time -> stands are added. And suddenly it is looking like a laptop.

I think there is a reason why Laptops and Desktops didn't change that much in all those years.