[nielsandersen]

I agree with your idea that the future will be a fragmented one. And obviously there are still a lot of desktops and laptops at offices.

In my work for a digital agency we have a lot of projects going with tablets (well let's be honest it's all iPads) to work as replacement for laptops for certain processes and situations. There are so many real-life processes happening today where toting a laptop around is really not ideal and tablets have some awesome characteristics which make them a great second or third device for some job descriptions, but also a first device for others.

For pump installers for instance a laptop is a pain in the ass. They all have one, but they never bring it out of the car with them because it's heavy, has poor battery life and is really impractical when you're working in a dusty, dark environment. A tablet on the other hand serves them well. They can bring it with them. Hang it on a pipe somewhere and watch that installation video or look up that manual that they are needing. Battery life is so that they don't have to charge it all week. Everybody wins.

Don't mean to get carried away, but the world is really full of people doing "real work" where laptops and desktops are just not the best solution.

[ekianjo]

> Don't mean to get carried away, but the world is really full of people doing "real work" where laptops and desktops are just not the best solution.

I'm sure there is. But by far, most businesses still need laptops and proper desktops to work. Sometime you need a big screen. Most of the time you want to have a keyboard, a good one, to type fast. You want to have the precision of the mouse of do things on screen. ANd you need power. A portable device, no matter how good it is, is constrained by ventilation, temperature limits, processor speed, space, and so on. For the price of an iPad you get a much more powerful desktop computer.

Tablets have advantages as consumer devices, as presentation devices, as "reader / browsing" devices. They are convenient. I do not deny that. But they simply won't replace everything else.

And the reason why the iPad sells so well is because it's a disposable device at heart. Whenever a new iPad comes out, most of the previous iPad owners drop their older version to get the new one. (same for the iPhone, by the way). Usually computer users keep their PCs active for way longer than that.

[nielsandersen]

I agree with you completely that desktops and laptops aren't going anywhere for the forseeable future.

For a lot of job functions power is just not necessary.

There is a lot happening right now with especially the iPad as a tool for mobile professionals, service sector jobs and for blue-collar work functions where access to data and light data entry is needed but a quad core is total overkill.

An easy to use OS and a decent touchscreen is a great way of streamlining a lot of processes which currently involve filling out forms and carrying around manuals and forms and what not.

Us office types still see it as that third device that does nothing that our laptop or smartphone can't do, but for those who have neither of those provided by the workplace it's a real boon.

[keithpeter]

"But by far, most businesses still need laptops and proper desktops to work. Sometime you need a big screen. Most of the time you want to have a keyboard, a good one, to type fast. You want to have the precision of the mouse of do things on screen."

Absolutely, I need those things... for about 15% of my working time.

I suspect lot of people in roles where access to information is needed with minimal modification or addition to the data could work with other devices.

[ekianjo]

> Absolutely, I need those things... for about 15% of my working time.

By curiosity, what do you do the rest of your working time?

[keithpeter]

I talk to people. (I'm a teacher)

[ekianjo]

Allright. In that case I cannot argue.

[gwright]

I doubt that most (i.e. > 50%) of iPad and iPhone users replace them on an annual basis. Would love to see some solid data on the actual numbers though.

[ekianjo]

I don't know. I may be suffering from sample bias, but around me, everyone who have iPads and iPhone change models as soon as one comes out. And they feel an URGE to do it. For reasons I cannot understand.

I've also heard the same story from other friends in different places, so I can only assume that a large amount of pre-iPad owners seem to buy a new one systematically. I don't have market research data to prove anything, however.

[flatline3]

The new one is better. Faster processor, better screen, more RAM, etc. Not too hard to figure out why people upgrade.

The devices aren't disposable, either. They hold value, and it's easy enough to sell the old one. Nobody is throwing away an iPad.

[ekianjo]

The URGE to get a new one is irrational. We dont see that on PC when a new graphic card comes out or something. The iPad replacement pace is massive and hysterical.

[flatline3]

Why is it hysterical or irrational? The new model provides significant advantages to the consumer.

It costs about as much as a fancy new video card, and is much easier for users to replace than a video card. Plus, they can sell the old one, or hand it down to spous/kids/etc.