[geoelectric]

The thing is that I don’t really see the Vision Pro as Palm OS. Palm OS was out for years and years and was really successful, all things considered.

Sure, it wasn’t as ubiquitous as iOS or Android now, but it obviously filled a niche for a large enough number of people that it stuck around and pioneered that market. I had a Kyocera 6035 Palm “smartphone” over half a decade before the iPhone came out, and the Handspring Treos were also awfully popular among early adopters.

That credit here goes squarely to Oculus/Meta, and the Quest in specific.

Vision Pro, at best, is a Newton, stuffed with tech cool enough to be Really Neat, but with either too much tradeoff or that doesn’t go far enough to be a sea change in usability. There’s a little bit of Pippin in there too, with Apple not quite understanding how much games and game like activities drive VR adoption and how best to leverage that. Ultimately, the Vision Pro is a tech demo for a much better device and ecosystem in the future.

I think the one thing the VP has going for it over a Newton is timing. For once, later is better. Newton did all their stuff way early—then Palm came out with a fraction of it and turned out to be Good Enough so everyone forgot the Newton.

In this case, we already have Quest out as the Good Enough device, which makes it the right time to start discussing what the evolution would be. In that sense, I think the Vision Pro is very interesting.

[Miraste]

My hope is that the Vision Pro is like the Apple Watch. It launched without a clear idea of why people would buy it--originally Apple tried to sell their bland aluminum box as a fashion accessory--and it was only after multiple iterations that they found out health and fitness was the main appeal and focused on it. If they pay attention to how people do use VR headsets, maybe they can do that again.

[kjkjadksj]

The cost of the device is way off. Apple watch is still vaguely in line with the prices of other nice ish watches. $400 or so. Expensive but not otherworldly so. Vision pro is so expensive you rule out the middle class. Its price point was conceived by people who haven’t left northern california for some time.

[Miraste]

For that matter, I don't think any other Apple products are so out of line with competitor's prices. Airpods, iPhones, and iPad are also about the same as Samsung/Google stuff. MacBooks are marked up, but still in range of Wintel machines. Same for their workstations. Then the Vision Pro rolls out at 600% more than the competition, and doesn't sell. Pitching it as a work machine was shooting themselves in the foot, too: a $3000 MacBook is so much more capable than a Vision Pro it's absurd. The VP is using the base processor from MacBook Airs two generations ago. I mean, come on.

[adastra22]

The original Apple Watch was a luxury item too—remember the high-end fashion branding?

[riffraff]

But it was a luxury item you would a) use all the time b) show off in your daily life.

That's why Rolex watches or Prada bags sell.

The vision pro is more like buying a painting, it's way more niche.

[h0l0cube]

> originally Apple tried to sell their bland aluminum box as a fashion accessory--and it was only after multiple iterations that they found out health and fitness was the main appeal and focused on it.

Wristwatch fitness trackers had already established this as baseline market fit long before Apple. The benefit of the Apple Watch for me is to not have to carry a phone in my pocket and still be able to do smartphone things like message, pay for things, or even make calls if I need to. Then the pandemic needed you to scan QR codes to do contract calls, and then normalized QR codes for restaurant orders, so I'm back to the phone and my watch gathers dust.

[Earw0rm]

The stumbling block here seems likely to be Apple's fundamental dislike of, and disconnect with, all things gaming.

It's an aesthetic and cultural divide. Like premium German car brands vs ricers, and I don't need to tell you which is which.

[lolinder]

> originally Apple tried to sell their bland aluminum box as a fashion accessory--and it was only after multiple iterations that they found out health and fitness was the main appeal and focused on it

As a sibling notes, we already had had fitbit for 6 years by the time Apple came out with the Watch. They tried to make it about more than fitness and eventually conceded that that wasn't happening and focused on the market that existed before their release.

So if this plays out this same way then in a few years Apple will finally concede that VR is for video games and finally start focusing on the gamer market.

[geoelectric]

Yeah, that’s another good comparison.

The Palm equivalent in that comparison would be Fitbit and possibly Pebble. Apple waited until there was a proven market in wearables, then figured out how to combine that market with the strengths of their existing ecosystem to improve upon value. Then they propped up the model line with $$$ until they actually became good enough for people to buy.

I’m relatively optimistic they can do that here too, but that device needs to have a model that does everything it does today (well, maybe not the creepy visor eyes) and more for less than $1000 and at about 2/3 the weight max, before I think AW-like adoption will possibly happen.

[Retric]

They have a long history of ridding the cost curve down, but it’s not that fast. The 2010 iPad was 720$ adjusted for inflation, the current iPad better in basically every way starts at 350$. Original 2007 iPhone would be 908$ inflation adjusted while the iPhone SE is 429$.

My guess is it’s either discontinued or the 2040 Vision (non pro) is going to be strictly better in basically every way but still more than 1000$ inflation adjusted. But honestly if it’s 1/3 the weight and essentially strictly better in every way that could be quite compelling. There’s definitely a point where headsets are going to be comfortable enough you can forget they’re there, and ~2k for something you’re using regularly for 4+ years isn’t crazy money.

[checkyoursudo]

I think the ergonomics is an underappreciated aspect of adoption and regular usage.

> There’s definitely a point where headsets are going to be comfortable enough you can forget they’re there

I would really like to think so, but I am not at all confident that this is will happen.

[kjkjadksj]

Pricing the se and base model ipad is a bit disingenuous. You look at the flagships and they kept up with inflation adjusted pricing. Iphone and ipad 1 were flagships. Not old hardware released for a song.

[Retric]

I wouldn’t call either of them a flagship product, just the product. They added new titles for those premium products. At release it was called an “iPad” and in 2024 they still call the base model an “iPad” while also having an “iPad Air” and “iPad Pro.”

It makes sense as a strategy, a mid 90’s 2,000$ desktop is ~5,000$ today inflation adjusted. Few people spend that on a desktop today the market just shifts and you need to keep up. Meanwhile there’s a tiny percentage of people who just don’t care that much about money so you want something to milk such people for all they are willing to spend.

[ghaff]

Exploration seems like an interesting use case. Probably more than gaming or wearable monitors in spite of the bubble here.

I'm still a bit meh on the Apple Watch in spite of buying an early one and then an Ultra that I got a good deal on. I don't care much about the quantified health thing and the battery life is still an issue even with the Ultra. Like for hiking though.

[justinclift]

Hopefully Asahi Linux can be run on the thing, so it can be useful outside of Apple's walled garden too. :)

[zarzavat]

Yes, it’s the games stupid.

There is one group of people who are willing to spend ludicrous amounts of money for this product, and that’s gamers.

Unfortunately Apple does not and has never understood games as art. They only care about casual games that bring in the $$.

Apple also has beefs with Khronos, NVIDIA, and Epic.

I had thought that when VP came out, Apple would make amends with the gaming industry particularly Epic because they really need Epic’s on their side for VP to succeed. Who is going to build games for this thing in the best engine if Apple can ban Epic’s developer account at any time?

Nope. App Store revenue comes first. It’s just the same as the iPad Pro. Great hardware squandered because of App Store rent seeking.

[Eggpants]

Nvidia demanded Apple to allow its video driver to be able to phone home just like it does in the windows toy OS(running in ring 0 no less). Epic/Tencent fortnight abuses the DNS protocol probably to bypass wirewalls. Both can be observed via wireshark, which I leave as an exercise for the reader.

Personally I’m glad Apple told both of them to go pound sand.

[m3kw9]

Is just too pricey and a bit cumbersome for masses, the tech is good and we could all use it even just for some experiences that can only be done in VR

[HeatrayEnjoyer]

Their decision to use glass for the housing is stupifying. It's on your head and swinging around, it should be absolutely as light as possible.

[aurareturn]

Agreed. I liked the demo at Apple Store except that it was freaking heavy. That was by far, the biggest deal breaker for me.

If they make it weigh half as much, I would buy one.

[johnnyanmac]

Too pricey in a time where many fear a recession. So it's an even worse launch to market than usual.

[adastra22]

People have been fearing a recession for the last 16 years.

[johnnyanmac]

Sure, but it didn't stop them during the "great resignation" from moving around. Actions speak louder than words.

Statistically speaking, people are a lot more hesitant to switch jobs right now. That definitely points to legitimate fears (regardless of the objective economic outlook).

[kjkjadksj]

Forget recession fears. Most people don’t have $3500 lying around flat out.