[blinkedup]

Sports journalist Alan Abrahamson reports that he's personally seen the test results from the New Delhi lab where both boxers had their blood samples tested during the 2023 Women's World Boxing Championships: https://www.3wiresports.com/articles/2024/8/3/0d4ucn50bmvbnd...

> 3 Wire Sports has seen the letter and the tests.

> The documents shed new light on the controversy enveloping Khelif and, as well, Yu Ting Lin of Chinese Taipei that has erupted at these Paris 2024 Games.

> [...]

> In New Delhi, another test for each, "to reconfirm the findings of the initial test, which it did," according to the June 2023 letter the IBA sent to the IOC.

> The New Delhi lab reports for both Khelif and Lin say the same thing:

> Result Summary: "Abnormal"

> Interpretation: "Chromosomal analysis reveals Male karyotype."

> A karyotype means an individual's complete set of chromosomes. Females have XX chromosomes, males XY.

> The lab results for each athlete depict the XY chromosomes photographically.

As these were analysed in an independent laboratory, I think at the very least we can be confident that both athletes have a male (XY) sex chromosomes, even if the IBA itself may be of questionable trustworthiness.

[defrost]

> I think at the very least we can be confident that

Many things are possible when charged events spark contraversy, as evidenced by decades of history of reporting.

You may be "confident" in your leaps to a conclusion but you don't speak for a greater "we" and you should refrain from claiming to.

On balance it's just as probable that Abrahamson has seen documents that were presented to him as "test results from a New Delhi lab" but were fabricated, or genuine but flawed, or that Abrahamson is stretching the truth for the gain of his own website 3wiresports.

In the greater political picture, much of this contraversy stems from the IBA.

The IOC suspended the IBA in 2019 over governance, finance, refereeing and ethical issues and did not involve it in running the boxing events at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, before stripping it of recognition in 2023.

Any genuine lab results that exist will have been seen by the IOC, at the most recent press conference the IOC position on this was:

    "Women have the right to participate in women’s [events], and we will not rely on — which test? I have been seeing a transcript of this very interesting press conference of this organization (IBA) where it was not even clear which tests have been performed, which results they have been produced.

~ IOC President Thomas Bach.

With respect to the greater picture here, he expanded:

    When asked if the IOC would be willing to review its policies ahead of the 2028 Games in Los Angeles, Bach said the organization would be open to it. 

    "That’s what we have said from the very beginning. If somebody is presenting us a scientifically solid system – how to identify man and woman – we’re the first ones to do it. We do not like this uncertainty. We do not like it for the overall situation for nobody. So, we would be more than pleased to look into it. But what is not possible is that somebody saying that ‘this is not a woman’ just by looking at somebody or by falling prey to a defamation campaign by not a credible organization with highly political interests." 

In such a situation it is wise to wary of any claims of definite lab test results being bandied about, there's pride, funding, revenge, etc. at play in this arena.

[blinkedup]

> On balance it's just as probable that Abrahamson has seen documents that were presented to him as "test results from a New Delhi lab" but were fabricated, or genuine but flawed, or that Abrahamson is stretching the truth for the gain of his own website 3wiresports.

Not really, no. It would require a conspiracy of far too many people and organisations, including the two labs independent of the IBA who analysed both boxers' blood samples.

Plus if these lab results were incorrect, Khelif and Lin could pursue a case in the Court of Arbitration for Sport and present medical evidence to the contrary. Or even just have an independent body do sex tests and make these results public. Nether of them chose to do so.

[defrost]

> Not really, no.

Yes, really, yes.

You and I apparently live in different realities, there have been many past contraverseries in the press and many events in politics, sport, defence, celebrity gossip, etc, etc in which all the possible scenarios have played out; documents have been flasified and fed to reporters, sketchy lab results have been misinterpreted, etc.

I'm not advocating that any specific outcome has occurred, I'm merely reiterating what is an actual truth we should all remember; when money and reputation is at stake mistakes are made by accident and evidence is misrepresented through malfeasence or overenthusiasm.

I'm adopting the same neutral stance here as I've taken when reporting mineral and energy intelligence to clients who've paid substantial subscriptions for balanced summaries; it is often the case that reports differ and various actors adopt positions that don't mutually align.

It's a fool that chooses one as the truth merely because it aligns with the outcome that fits their preconception.

[blinkedup]

I disagree. One shouldn't just take all possibilities as equally probable. But instead consider what would need to be involved to make each outcome possible and adjust one's perception of probabilities based on that. If it involves a vast unevidenced conspiracy of several unrelated parties, then it's going to be much less likely.

Besides that, there's additional evidence in this case that indicates XY sex chromosomes and male physical advantage.

For Khelif, perhaps the most revealing evidence is this interview with Khelif's trainer: https://www.lepoint.fr/sport/exclusif-jo-2024-imane-khelif-a...

> Après les championnats du monde 2023, où elle a été disqualifiée, j'ai pris les devants en contactant un endocrinologue de renom du CHU parisien, Kremlin-Bicêtre, qui l'a examinée. Celui-ci a confirmé qu'Imane est bien une femme, malgré son caryotype et son taux de testostérone. Il a dit : « Il y a un problème avec ses hormones, avec ses chromosomes, mais c'est une femme. » C'est tout ce qui nous importait. Nous avons ensuite travaillé avec une médecin basée en Algérie pour contrôler et réguler le taux de testostérone d'Imane, qui est actuellement dans la norme féminine. Des tests montrent très bien que toutes ses qualités musculaires et autres s'amoindrissent depuis. Actuellement, elle peut être comparée au niveau musculaire et au niveau biologique à une femme-femme-femme.

Here, he states that Khelif was medically assessed after the disqualification from the 2023 World Championships, and that this investigation revealed "a problem with chromosomes and hormones", and that as a consequence Khelif received medical interventions to artificially lower testosterone levels.

Also, the coach of the Spanish national team, Rafael Lozano, revealed that when the Algerian team visited to train with them, Khelif had to spar against a male boxer (José Quiles), as Khelif's strength was too great to safely spar against any of the female boxers: https://x.com/AlbertOrtegaES1/status/1819317673576030501

We can consider the results of both of these boxers in the Olympics as well. Both won gold in their weight class, and both won each round 5-0, which none of their competitors did. Isn't it an interesting coincidence that the two XY boxers happened to be the two that achieved such remarkable success in the women's tournament?

[YeGoblynQueenne]

>> Result Summary: "Abnormal"

>> Interpretation: "Chromosomal analysis reveals Male karyotype."

>> A karyotype means an individual's complete set of chromosomes. Females have XX chromosomes, males XY.

The last line is an oversimplification that the author, as many others, uses to jump to conclusions. As the BBC article reports, quoting Alun Williams:

>> “It’s obviously a very good marker, as most people with a Y chromosome are male… but it’s not a perfect indicator.”

>> For some people with DSD, the Y chromosome is not a fully formed typical male Y chromosome. It may have some genetic material missing, damaged or swapped with the X chromosome, depending on the variation.

Also, something that's been a bit annoying throughout this affair: a "male karyotype" is not "XY", it's "46, XY" and a female karyotype is "46, XX". At least that's the normal male/ female karyotypes and some people with DSDs have variations thereof, like the 47, XXY karyotype of Kleineflter's Syndrome (a "trisomy").

In any eventuality, as the BBC article says, a male karyotype does not a male make, let alone a man. As a for instance, this is an article that reports natural birth in a woman with predominantly 46, XY karyotype:

Report of Fertility in a Woman with a Predominantly 46,XY Karyotype in a Family with Multiple Disorders of Sexual Development

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2190741/

This was a case of a woman with mosaicism, which means some of her cells had one set of chromosomes and other cells another. The karyotype of her ovaries was predominantly 46, XY, i.e. what the pundits keep calling "male" and less than 1% 46, XX, i.e. "female", by the pundits. And yet, not only did she menstruate regularly, she had two unassisted pregnancies and gave birth to a daughter. Imagine now if this woman was an athlete who had failed a gender test for having "XY chromosomes" as widely reported for the two Olympic boxers. A woman who has given birth is a male and should be competing in a men's category? How does that square with anything anyone knows or believes about gender or sex?

It is because of this kind of situation that is not unheard of and is not that rare in the grand scheme of things that the scientists in the BBC article, as well as the IOC, find it so difficult to say with certainty what is a man and what is a woman. Because despite what we all think we know, when we reach the limits of physical conditions, as is common in sports, the limits begin to become a blur.

[blinkedup]

I agree that an XY karyotype isn't conclusive proof that an individual is male, but it's a good heuristic for male physical advantage. In the context of women's sports, and certainly at an elite level, there are very few XY DSDs that don't confer such advantage and would still permit an individual to be competitive.

Like for example, Swyer syndrome is an XY DSD where the individual has a female phenotype (including uterus, fallopian tubes, and vagina) but complete gonadal dysgenesis. No ovaries or testes. Because of oestrogen deficiency, such individuals end up with a very high risk of bone defects including osteopenia and osteoporosis - which is not compatible with competitive sport.

Even with CAIS, an XY DSD where the body cannot process testosterone at all so despite presence of testes the individual develops an otherwise female phenotype, has a curiously higher incidence in athletes competing at an elite level, compared to the average within the general population: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5643412

> although they are likely to be taller than the average 46,XX woman given some height-determining genes on the Y chromosome and perhaps some that increase lean body mass. Mutation of this gene is found in fewer than 1 in 20,000 in the general population but is relatively common in elite female athletes [noted as 1/421 and 1/423 at the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games].

The case of mosaicism you linked is fascinating but also incredibly rare, even more so than other DSDs. Also it almost certainly doesn't apply to these two boxers because it would have been picked up on the karyotyping, as it was in that paper.

I feel that the BBC article was quite enlightening on the topic of DSDs in general, but not so much on the impact of and presence of specific male DSDs in women's sport at an elite level. Sport provides a selection filter so these skew towards the subset that confer performance advantage. Like, 5-ARD has dominated entire podiums: in the Women's 800m of the 2016 Olympics, every medal was taken by a male.

That said, I see this as a policy failure more than anything. The IOC's policy fails women by not attempting to exclude male physical advantage at all, instead just going by whatever an athlete's identity documents say. They prioritise inclusion of male athletes in the women's category more than fairness and safety for female athletes.

This is in contrast with how they police their other eligibility criteria, like weight classes where this is verified at the event by weigh-ins. It's strict, too: an athlete was disqualified in this Olympics for being 100 grams over.

I believe the IBA's process, even though they prioritised the safety of their female athletes and fairness in competition, was also flawed. They should have taken the XY karyotype results as the start of their investigation instead of the end. Though, neither Khelif nor Lin pursued a case against the the IBA's decision at the CAS. Which says a lot too.

[YeGoblynQueenne]

Note that we don't know what kind of test the IBA used to disqualify the two Olympic boxers. You say "karyotype test" because the sports journalist above reported "male karyotype" as the "interpretation" of the test result, without specifying the test (probably because the sports journalist doesn't realise "chromosome test" is vague and imprecise). That doesn't tell us what kind of test was carried out and there is no official information, because it would be illegal to share it. It seems the IBA was planning to share the results but the two athletes' teams sent legal letters to the IBA reminding it of non-disclosure agreements:

The purpose of the press conference was to double down on the IBA’s claim that the IOC, led by Kremlev’s bete noire, Thomas Bach, is a danger to women’s boxing, among other things.

It had been believed making public the chromosome tests of the boxers would place serious pressure on the Olympic organisers’ position that the fighters were eligible having been registered as women at birth and holding passports as such. But that morning legal letters came in from the Algerian and Taiwanese organising committees warning them not to breach non-disclosure agreements.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/aug/11/gender...

So all we have to go by is, frankly, dodgy tactics by the IBA that seems more interested in kicking up a storm to discredit the IOC, than to protect women's sports. I suggest caution in accepting anything the IBA says.

[blinkedup]

That interpretation was by the laboratory, described verbatim from the reports of the test results.

Abrahamson also reported that the XY chromosomes were depicted photographically. So we know it must have been a karyotype test because that's what those tests show.

Here's an example from Wikipedia: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NHGRI_human_male_k...

We can see in this how the sex chromosomes make an asymmetrically sized pair, indicating XY. It's clear from the description of the lab reports that the same was observed for Khelif and Lin.