[defrost]

> I think at the very least we can be confident that

Many things are possible when charged events spark contraversy, as evidenced by decades of history of reporting.

You may be "confident" in your leaps to a conclusion but you don't speak for a greater "we" and you should refrain from claiming to.

On balance it's just as probable that Abrahamson has seen documents that were presented to him as "test results from a New Delhi lab" but were fabricated, or genuine but flawed, or that Abrahamson is stretching the truth for the gain of his own website 3wiresports.

In the greater political picture, much of this contraversy stems from the IBA.

The IOC suspended the IBA in 2019 over governance, finance, refereeing and ethical issues and did not involve it in running the boxing events at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, before stripping it of recognition in 2023.

Any genuine lab results that exist will have been seen by the IOC, at the most recent press conference the IOC position on this was:

    "Women have the right to participate in women’s [events], and we will not rely on — which test? I have been seeing a transcript of this very interesting press conference of this organization (IBA) where it was not even clear which tests have been performed, which results they have been produced.

~ IOC President Thomas Bach.

With respect to the greater picture here, he expanded:

    When asked if the IOC would be willing to review its policies ahead of the 2028 Games in Los Angeles, Bach said the organization would be open to it. 

    "That’s what we have said from the very beginning. If somebody is presenting us a scientifically solid system – how to identify man and woman – we’re the first ones to do it. We do not like this uncertainty. We do not like it for the overall situation for nobody. So, we would be more than pleased to look into it. But what is not possible is that somebody saying that ‘this is not a woman’ just by looking at somebody or by falling prey to a defamation campaign by not a credible organization with highly political interests." 

In such a situation it is wise to wary of any claims of definite lab test results being bandied about, there's pride, funding, revenge, etc. at play in this arena.

[blinkedup]

> On balance it's just as probable that Abrahamson has seen documents that were presented to him as "test results from a New Delhi lab" but were fabricated, or genuine but flawed, or that Abrahamson is stretching the truth for the gain of his own website 3wiresports.

Not really, no. It would require a conspiracy of far too many people and organisations, including the two labs independent of the IBA who analysed both boxers' blood samples.

Plus if these lab results were incorrect, Khelif and Lin could pursue a case in the Court of Arbitration for Sport and present medical evidence to the contrary. Or even just have an independent body do sex tests and make these results public. Nether of them chose to do so.

[defrost]

> Not really, no.

Yes, really, yes.

You and I apparently live in different realities, there have been many past contraverseries in the press and many events in politics, sport, defence, celebrity gossip, etc, etc in which all the possible scenarios have played out; documents have been flasified and fed to reporters, sketchy lab results have been misinterpreted, etc.

I'm not advocating that any specific outcome has occurred, I'm merely reiterating what is an actual truth we should all remember; when money and reputation is at stake mistakes are made by accident and evidence is misrepresented through malfeasence or overenthusiasm.

I'm adopting the same neutral stance here as I've taken when reporting mineral and energy intelligence to clients who've paid substantial subscriptions for balanced summaries; it is often the case that reports differ and various actors adopt positions that don't mutually align.

It's a fool that chooses one as the truth merely because it aligns with the outcome that fits their preconception.

[blinkedup]

I disagree. One shouldn't just take all possibilities as equally probable. But instead consider what would need to be involved to make each outcome possible and adjust one's perception of probabilities based on that. If it involves a vast unevidenced conspiracy of several unrelated parties, then it's going to be much less likely.

Besides that, there's additional evidence in this case that indicates XY sex chromosomes and male physical advantage.

For Khelif, perhaps the most revealing evidence is this interview with Khelif's trainer: https://www.lepoint.fr/sport/exclusif-jo-2024-imane-khelif-a...

> Après les championnats du monde 2023, où elle a été disqualifiée, j'ai pris les devants en contactant un endocrinologue de renom du CHU parisien, Kremlin-Bicêtre, qui l'a examinée. Celui-ci a confirmé qu'Imane est bien une femme, malgré son caryotype et son taux de testostérone. Il a dit : « Il y a un problème avec ses hormones, avec ses chromosomes, mais c'est une femme. » C'est tout ce qui nous importait. Nous avons ensuite travaillé avec une médecin basée en Algérie pour contrôler et réguler le taux de testostérone d'Imane, qui est actuellement dans la norme féminine. Des tests montrent très bien que toutes ses qualités musculaires et autres s'amoindrissent depuis. Actuellement, elle peut être comparée au niveau musculaire et au niveau biologique à une femme-femme-femme.

Here, he states that Khelif was medically assessed after the disqualification from the 2023 World Championships, and that this investigation revealed "a problem with chromosomes and hormones", and that as a consequence Khelif received medical interventions to artificially lower testosterone levels.

Also, the coach of the Spanish national team, Rafael Lozano, revealed that when the Algerian team visited to train with them, Khelif had to spar against a male boxer (José Quiles), as Khelif's strength was too great to safely spar against any of the female boxers: https://x.com/AlbertOrtegaES1/status/1819317673576030501

We can consider the results of both of these boxers in the Olympics as well. Both won gold in their weight class, and both won each round 5-0, which none of their competitors did. Isn't it an interesting coincidence that the two XY boxers happened to be the two that achieved such remarkable success in the women's tournament?