On the one hand, even with the post-crash dip, CRWD has a $60.9 billion market cap, there's certainly marketshare to be taken from them. On the other hand, Wiz doesn't have an endpoint protection product (which is what failed for CRWD). They'd have to build one from scratch, which requires dedicated talent (engineers with kernel experience) that they might not have.
If anyone is going after CRWD it'll be one of their other competitors.
These numbers sound like a complete out of world fantasy to me. CRWD has a product that the user is not going to notice, best case. Now you said Wiz doesn't even have that one (what does it have then?)
And their valuation is on par with the whole annually Western support of Ukraine. A country at war and with 30M people in it. That for some completely invisible product.
It is also 17 millions of these most expensive brand new 155m artillery shells.
I think this is just a representation of where the money is in the world. Two things:
- stocks are called stocks for a reason, they're not flows. $60bn is effectively an estimate of all future profits of the company over its lifetime
- Crowdstrike generates a return by charging enterprises huge amounts of money to feel secure and tick security boxes (Actual security is questionable). Big enterprises have a lot of money to waste, but they feel they're getting a return on it
- hardly anyone outside Ukraine gets a specific return from backing Ukraine. The same goes for all sorts of other worthy projects of the "end world hunger" kind - there's huge benefits, but not to the people actually spending the money.
Pretending that being geopolitical superpower has no direct economic benefits is just silly. If USD lost the status of world's reserve currency it would have pretty catastrophic consequences for US economy.
How do I, as an individual investor, capture the return of sending a shell to Ukraine?
> If USD lost the status of world's reserve currency it would have pretty catastrophic consequences for US economy
.. but for everyone at once. Collective action problem. You've argued why it's in the interest of the US government to tax people and send shells to Ukraine, but this is not an argument for Blackrock to divert VC funding to individual armored brigades.
It's hard to make a leap from war to company valuation. Also Ukraine support is highly inflated number. If say Ukraine gets supplied with an old design MLRS rockets from US that was slated to be replaced in a few years and had very limited shelf life remaining the number counted is not the market cost of that old rocket (which would be a few 100K) but the 3 mil new top of the line replacement thing that US is producing for itself and Ukraine will never see.
At the very least I would expect to see a 5 billion market cap, and if their growth rate is good (4 year old company, seems to be) it should be higher than that
It is an entirely different problem with almost nothing in common with their existing product, and there are a ton of incumbents, some of whom are even quite good (Carbon Black, SentinelOne, etc)
You’re trying to prove a point with no point. Yes, anyone can build anything. There is always room for more contenders when there are existing incumbents. The sky is still blue, and the grass is still green.
But it would make no sense for Wiz to do that, as they don’t have any “secret sauce” as it comes to endpoint security. They haven’t solved the problems that took Crowdstrike down.
It is not in their wheelhouse. It would be a waste of money and time.
Could they? Sure. Should they? Definitely not. It’s a commoditized space at this point, unless they have some new ideas which, if they did, they’d have already begun discussing.
Carbon Black did well because it turned endpoint security on its head. Not because it was a “better AV”
I work for a smaller player and we have solved the problem that took crowdstrike down from the get go agent will rollback to previous content version if it crashes on the content related steps. That had 0 value for marketing till now. Crowdstrike has never being at the top of the pile on efficacy of detection either so your idea that market position is even remotely related to some secret sauce is a fantasy.
They’d be competing with Crowdstrike, SentinelOne, Microsoft Defender, and Trend Micro not to mention existing CNAPP/CSPM offerings that have an agent for cloud runtime security as well as other cloud runtime security focused startups.
Adding a runtime security and EDR offering is not going to get them to a $23B valuation.
Honestly you just need to have good marketing and a passable product. The "secret" none talks much about all top tier APT groups run labs and test their exploit families agains all top tier Endpoint solutions. So none of them can stop a determined well resourced adversary but that not in any of the marketing booklets.
If anyone is going after CRWD it'll be one of their other competitors.