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Having written an SSH server that is used in a few larger places, I find the perspective of enabling these features on a per-address basis by default in the future troubling. First, with IPv4 this will have the potential to increasingly penalize innocent bystanders as CGNs are deployed. Worst case, this will give bad actors the option to lock the original owner out of their own server if they have a botnet host in the same network. With IPv6 on the other hand, it is trivially easy to get a new IP, so the protection method described here will be completely ineffective. From my experiments with several honeypots over a longer period of time, most of these attacks are dumb dictionary attacks. Unless you are using default everything (user, port, password), these attacks don't represent a significant threat and more targeted attacks won't be caught by this. (Please use SSH keys.) I have seen experienced sysadmins create the test user with the password of "test" on a live server on port 22 because they were having an "autopilot moment". It got hacked within 20 minutes of going online and these mechanisms wouldn't have saved it, the attacker got in on the second or third try. If you want to have a read about unsolved problems around SSH that should be addressed, Tatu Ylonen (the inventor of SSH) has written a paper about it in 2019: https://helda.helsinki.fi/server/api/core/bitstreams/471f0ff... |
OpenSSH already seems to take that into account by allowing you to penalize not just a single IP, but also an entire subnet. Enable that to penalize an entire /64 for IPv6, and you're in pretty much the same scenario as "single IPv4 address".
I think there's some limited value in it. It could be a neat alternative to allowlisting your own IP which doesn't completely block you from accessing it from other locations. Block larger subnets at once if you don't care about access from residential connections, and it would act as a very basic filter to make annoying attacks stop. Not providing any real security, but at least you're not spending any CPU cycles on them.
On the other hand, I can definitely see CGNAT resulting in accidental or intentional lockouts for the real owner. Enabling it by default on all installations probably isn't the best choice.