Evidence of hitting the AI ceiling would be if 4o used more compute and didn't improve much despite the extra compute.
They likely have another model, or are at least planning another one, which uses more (not less) compute than GPT-4/4o. If that model doesn't get much better, then yes, we've stalled.
We've very recently had fresh releases from Meta and Anthropic (maybe Google/Gemini too - don't pay much attention), and the cycle time for these foundation models is about a year. Yeah, GPT-next is due (maybe im-a-good-chatgpt2 is a snapshot?), so probably not ready. I feel that OpenAI is struggling relative to Anthropic given their respective timelimes.
There seem to be pretty obvious ways to improve reasoning/planning and hallucination, and we're barely started on the synthetic data binge that all the players seem to be finding promising.
I do think GPT-based-AI will plateau at some point in next few years unless there are some more fundamental architectural advances, but I expect that new AI architectures, ultimately leading to AGI, may follow relatively soon.
There’s no analysis and we have incomplete information. This is just a reactive take on releasing a faster model. We don’t know if a higher quality model exists, we don’t know the nature of OpenAI’s connection with Apple and iOS, and he’s dismissing improved model speed with reduced cost without explanation.
The post is labeled as a hot take, so I’m not bothered by it, but it also isn’t worth reading. Glad it was short.
"clearly stalled" -- how do people make such quick jumps?
I for one have no idea what the future holds, but I also realize that GPT4 was released a year ago, in that time there have been a number of updates that have improved different attributes of the model. Hard to really say one way or the other without being on the inside.
Evidence of hitting the AI ceiling would be if 4o used more compute and didn't improve much despite the extra compute.
They likely have another model, or are at least planning another one, which uses more (not less) compute than GPT-4/4o. If that model doesn't get much better, then yes, we've stalled.