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by HarHarVeryFunny 771 days ago
We've very recently had fresh releases from Meta and Anthropic (maybe Google/Gemini too - don't pay much attention), and the cycle time for these foundation models is about a year. Yeah, GPT-next is due (maybe im-a-good-chatgpt2 is a snapshot?), so probably not ready. I feel that OpenAI is struggling relative to Anthropic given their respective timelimes.

There seem to be pretty obvious ways to improve reasoning/planning and hallucination, and we're barely started on the synthetic data binge that all the players seem to be finding promising.

I do think GPT-based-AI will plateau at some point in next few years unless there are some more fundamental architectural advances, but I expect that new AI architectures, ultimately leading to AGI, may follow relatively soon.