[JanSolo]

The critical part of this article is this:

"But in June 2023, Musk said at an energy conference that "there just weren't enough batteries" for Tesla to reach "volume production" of the truck."

It looks like battery production is the major constraint on Teslas endeavours. Someone at Tesla clearly did the math on ROI-per-cell and decided that Semis just don't pay as well as Cybertrucks or Powerwalls. That's why they're starving the Semi operation until they can spin up more battery production.

[Workaccount2]

The craziest thing about Tesla is that people still believe what musk says.

I agree it makes sense that battery production is the limiting factor, but my ability to trust what Musk says is close to zero.

[detourdog]

I expect this news to have a positive effect. I wonder if an individual might own so much stock that they can overwhelm the short market for small durations. The price jump yesterday made no sense to me.

[theultdev]

Man the critics here about deadlines is astounding.

I wonder how many deadlines that people miss here, and that's usually just pure software, no materials.

[alephnerd]

Vendors missing deadlines on contracts is a valid reason for contracts being terminated, renewals being cancelled, and even litigation over breach of contract or even misrepresentation (depending on how angry the customer is).

There's a reason why PepsiCo partners are moving to Daimler now.

[asdajksah2123]

The argument that it's just "missing deadlines" which as true as it is, is also a strawman.

Musk hasn't just "missed deadlines". He's outright lied.

For example, in 2016 he claimed Tesla already had self driving capabilities it hasn't shown today, 8 years later.

He lied about bulletproof windows on the CyberTruck. His own demo disproved this.

He lied about the solar roofs. The entire demo was false and staged and the tiles on the roofs were not solar tiles as the demo strongly implied. And testimony showed that he personally knew that it was a lie.

Musk doesn't just miss deadlines. He blatantly lies. And that raises the legitimate concern that a lot of "missed deadlines" weren't just deadlines that were missed, but deadlines that were never feasible and he just lied about.

[renewiltord]

I do think it's amusing what the other guy says. Forums like this will be full of "Why software estimates are so hard and we shouldn't be forced to stick to deadlines" and the explanation will be "because each React form is like brand new R&D - more akin to Marie Curie's discoveries than a surgeon's work" and then suddenly a brand new kind of vehicle that has never been mass produced before has to hit deadlines or it's sign of obvious incompetence.

That contrast is definitely striking.

[tolmasky]

I think this is a pretty clear misrepresentation. The entire point of those forum posts is that software engineers are angry at managers promising timelines that aren't connected to reality: they want the unpredictability of the task to be transparent. That is actually entirely consistent, and arguably the exact same frustration, that they have with Musk -- a manager-type promising outrageous deadlines, repeatedly, with apparently zero ability to learn from past misses. The anger is with continuing to promise these outrageous deadlines, and furthermore the frustration of being called out if you are skeptical of them, not with the fact that he misses them. It's a one-to-one, 100%, absolutely identical complaint.

[alephnerd]

Software estimates also need to be hit, but Sales, Product, and Engineering leadership will fight to prevent the brunt of that from hitting ICs, but at some point if a large contract does churn, plenty of IC engineers will have their head on the chopping board.

I've been on both sides so I get it, and the only solution is to have blunt and honest communication from all sides - Field Facing teams need to not overcommit, and Internal teams actually need to execute and COMMUNICATE why they cannot.

As an employee, we are all working to make the company more money. That's the only goal.

[theultdev]

Production of EVs is hard. There's a reason why Ford lost 1.3B in the first quarter of 2024 ($3B in 2023) on EVs and is slowing production.

Overall Tesla is producing more EVs than any American company by far.

Yes, meeting the semi production goal would have been nice, but I'd rather consumer car production be prioritized.

[alephnerd]

That doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years.

The fact that PepsiCo leaked this to Reuters itself means they are on the warpath right now (eg. probably trying to strong-arm a significant refund and cost reduction, or setting up the paper trail needed to begin litigation over breach of contract).

[JumpCrisscross]

> doesn't absolve them of the fact that they underdelivered on a 8-9 figure deal by 66% over 7 years

I mean, it almost might. The problem isn't the underdelivery. It's Musk's loss of credibility. When he says it's about battery production, it might be about battery production, or it might be that he randomly changed the design at the last minute.

[Workaccount2]

But their consumer sales have collapsed, the market has more competitors than ever, and the second hand market is flooded with cheap model 3's.

[theultdev]

Isn't that a good thing that the market is flooded with cheap model 3's?

That's the goal isn't it? Cheaper EVs for everyone to replace ICE cars?

I keep hearing about competitors, but I never see any of their EVs, new or used. I see Teslas everywhere.

And cheap model 3's may "hurt" Tesla, but it hurts every other EV maker too. Good for the consumer though.

[whaleofatw2022]

Ford lost money because they went all in too fast for how late they were to the game.

And frankly it seems to be greed. They have proven hybrid and PHEV tech yet deny the US market the hybrid ranger, 'because US buyers can get the maverick'.

Except... they don't make enough of those either.

[throwitaway222]

If you have been in this space you know that nearly every software project is late, reduced, different and the customer never cancels.

[rm_-rf_slash]

TFA quotes a logistics company employee who placed a deposit 7 years ago and still has not received a single semi.

I’ve been late on deadlines before, but not 7 years late.

[theultdev]

The deposit is generally not on the deadline of delivery, otherwise you would have no need for the deposit.

And again, you're not dealing with global mass production of materials, or are you?

[HumblyTossed]

But seven years, though... Ouch.

[FireBeyond]

"He just missed a deadline, like you and me".

Tesla promised 100 trucks in 2017.

Seven years late, they're only at one-third of that.

Mind you, no surprises here.

FSD, this year, 2016. FSD, this year, 2017. FSD, this year, 2018. Every year. Here we are, still.

[jcranmer]

> I wonder how many deadlines that people miss here, and that's usually just pure software

That's not the flex you think it is. Software is pretty unique in delivering products that the companies don't want to stand behind--think of every software license that basically says "if this software doesn't work, it's YOUR FAULT".

In most industries, missing deadlines is generally grounds for your customers to get very cross with you, especially when your customers are businesses and not consumers.

[HumblyTossed]

You, know, you're right. We should all over promise and under deliver. It works for Elmo. Until it doesn't...

[alephnerd]

It's been a couple years since I watched Sesame Street but when did Elmo over promise and underdeliver?

[landmammals]

Elmo is Elon musk

[xenadu02]

> Man the critics here about deadlines is astounding. > I wonder how many deadlines that people miss here, and that's usually just pure software, no materials.

Look... I'm an investor in the Tesla IPO ($4k -> $200k+). I own a Tesla vehicle.

Current Elon has run off the deep end into conspiracy theories and utter nonsense. Buying Twitter because he was butt-hurt over some of his tweets being punished is just asinine. It is also a massive distraction on something utterly trivial.

There was absolutely a massive whisper campaign to say that EVs would never work. Elon did a lot of great things in the beginning. Some of those things include making lofty promises even though delivering on those promises took a lot longer than he thought. The most important thing in the beginning was proving EVs could work to the early adopters, ensuring Tesla could survive long enough to reach volume ramp-up. Volume means parts suppliers start returning your calls and economies of scale improve everything. Doing things differently got them noticed. Making cars fun was a brilliant marketing strategy... does anyone really need the Toy Box stuff Teslas can do? No... but it makes a lot of people (me included) smile. (My kids think Emissions mode is hilarious on our drive to school drop-off and now consider all other cars to be inferior because those cars can't make fart sounds. That's mind share you can't fucking buy even with unlimited money.)

Passing into the volume phase has killed a lot of companies. There are many more opportunities for things to go wrong and mistakes cost you a lot more. Your company also transitions from "we need exposure at any cost" to "we are a brand leader who has set expectations".

During this critical time Elon has failed to change his messaging. He is still in "we need exposure" mode, making outlandish promises and starting too many projects at once. In the end it is all a self-own. There was no need to get into semi-trucks. They have enough trouble scaling up Model Y and even shipping the Cyber Truck. They still haven't really delivered on FSD, despite charging for it and continuously increasing the price. It was 100% unnecessary. Focus on execution, leave the semi-truck idea for a few years down the road. You have enough irons in the fire. Your #1 focus should be a Model Y refresh since it is by far your top seller and is what is generating all that cash making Tesla an ongoing concern.

tl;dr: Tesla is no longer in survival mode but it is in a critical phase of its growth. Elon should have stopped making outlandish promises some time ago and focused on execution. His thin-skin about Twitter, resulting in trying to get a board seat, on a whim turning into buying the company has been a massive distraction that hurts Tesla at a time when it needs strong leadership and the traditional automakers are still fumbling on EVs.

[harborsong]

The craziest thing is, regardless how people feel about politics, Musk has achieved a lot for technology yet people in technology forums disparage him. I guess politics trumps technology.

[kibwen]

> The craziest thing is

I wouldn't call it crazy to point to someone with a documented history of lying and say that their word can't be trusted. Rather, that's called basic pattern recognition.

[rchaud]

One man's lie is another man's "4D chess move".

[cool_dude85]

The dancing robot has to be more than a 4D chess move. That's gotta be at least 7 or 8 D chess.

[lukefreiler]

As an early owner of a Model S with FSD, he's also made a lot of objectively false claims that burned customers and have nothing to do with politics.

[bradjohnson]

He successfully marketed and monetized an industry that already existed and would continue to exist without him, then reinvested in that industry to make himself more money. The way you and some others talk about him you would think he invented batteries and was the first one to discover you can use electricity to make a car move.

[jshen]

Integrity matters. He has none. You can't say things that aren't true over and over and expect to be believed the next time.

[uuddlrlrbaba]

The parroted introduction has me reading this comment in bad faith, but I'll bite anyway. What are some of his personal tech achievements? Emphasis on personal.

[krapp]

"Achieving a lot for technology" does not put one above criticism.

[willsmith72]

both are true. he's achieved amazing things, seriously pushing technology forwards

he also makes outlandish public claims which are ridiculous at the time and get worse with age. you can appreciate what he's done while simultaneously believing 0% of what leaves his mouth

[colingoodman]

He has a notorious habit of overpromising and underdelivering. I thought that habit of his was well established even before he became so vocally political.

[astrodust]

You have to wonder if working for four or five different companies while, allegedly, being on _all the drugs_ has an impact on his performance.

If Musk ran Apple we'd still be waiting on the iPhone XS, though he'd insist it'll be ready by "end of year", a phone that launched around the time Musk was crowing about these trucks.

[jdewerd]

It was, but it was the politics that swung the opinion pendulum from pathological "admire wins, ignore losses" to pathological "ignore wins, disparage losses."

[PaywallBuster]

Nonetheless

I have to agree with both you and parent reply

it's possible if it wasn't or trade wars it would've been easy to source batteries from china but who can control geo politics :)

[rchaud]

But Musk himself has said that American EV makers can't compete against Chinese EVs without trade barriers. Barriers that western governments have been more than happy to establish.

> "If there are no trade barriers established, they will pretty much demolish most other car companies in the world," he said. "They're extremely good."

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...

[perfect_wave]

Or maybe, just maybe, it’s that the dude spews whatever out of his mouth and the broader public and media take him at his word when time again its been seen that his word doesn’t mean shit.

[hedora]

As a counterpoint, we tried to get a tesla roof. Their repeated broken promises meant that we went with competitors (you can only delay installing a roof for so long...), and we simply don't trust Tesla to do anything at this point.

Most people I know are buying LG (small system) or Enphase (large system) batteries instead, or going with other competitors (Anker announced something that looks pretty sweet).

Also, Powerwalls are notoriously unreliable compared to those other brands; our local Tesla installer said they refuse to install them except when they are acting as a Tesla subcontractor, and pushed us to enphase or generac.

For semis, they took deposits then didn't deliver, so marquee customers are complaining publicly and buying semis from competitors.

For solar roofs, we talked to their competitors, and they were all backlogged because they were absorbing cancelled tesla contracts.

Tesla is great at marketing and making the sale, but then letting their competitors close out the deal.

[specialist]

I'm sure there's some truth to your speculation.

Yes and: Perhaps the Semi uses cells which are supply constrained. The Limiting Factor does updates on which models use which cells, where those cells are made, their current chemistry, and how cell supply might impact vehicle production numbers. Analysis based on data gleaned from public data, so uncertainty is stated as needed.

My own quick search didn't yield any answers.

[adrr]

What batteries are in the semi-trucks? I would assume it isn't even Tesla's battery but the LFP batteries from BYD and CATL for faster charging, and longevity. Powerwalls are LFP batteries.

[Symbiote]

And "BYD has deployed more than 60,000 electric buses that are currently operating around the world" so 1,000 semi trucks isn't so much.

There are more full-electric buses running in London than Tesla had orders for the Semi.

[FireBeyond]

Tesla fans are like horses with blinders. In this submission alone you have multiple people acting like commercial-sized electric vehicles are something the world has never seen, let alone mass produced, so we need to cut Tesla and Musk some slack (some even feel free to throw in a puerile, childish, "feel free to do better yourself or show us what you've done").

[atwrk]

And the BYD ebus started in 2010.

[moogly]

Only the newest version of Powerwall (v3) is LFP.

[serial_dev]

That's why he is happy that the US can "coup whoever we want". Damned be those who built their countries on top of our lithium!