Can you explain why the U.S. will experience hyperinflation while other countries that have much higher debt to gdp ratios haven’t experienced hyperinflation? When will the U.S. experience this hyperinflation? I’ve heard this prediction for the last 40 years. How much longer must I wait to experience it?
If you are absolutely certain that hyperinflation will occur then you should borrow as much money as possible and use it to buy assets such as land and housing.
It’s easy to make such a convincing video. Convincing to those with no expertise in the subject. But in 5 years when it hasn’t come to fruition will you remember how wrong he (and by extension you) are? Another conman will take his place and come up with a nice sounding theory that also boils down to: gold!
I think I follow what your intended point was, but from where I stand you appear to be tilting at an imagined opponent. Maybe you can clarify by elaborating on what you imagined the 5 year prediction to be?
The "Dollar Milkshake" theory is simply something I found to be a plausible response to the inflation doom predictions of the 2008 cycle.
I did look for a concise text summary before posting the video. They didn't capture the full concept. Here's Google's infobox:
>The milkshake theory basically holds that there simply aren't enough US dollars created to keep up with the rising demand. And when the greenback rises high enough and fast enough to lead to defaults abroad, the demand for dollars swirls up and its supply shrinks, leading to an epic squeeze higher.
In 5 years you’ll likely forget about this theory and this person because nothing will come of whatever predictions this person is making. For 50 years these sorts of people have been making the same sort of predictions and they have all been wrong. Empires all come to an end so eventually one of these charlatans will be right but not because of possessing insight. It’ll be a coincidence.
This is pretty much what he says in response to the Peter Schiff types of predictions. The critiques in this thread would be more aptly applied to those debating against "The Dollar Milkshake Theory".
It isn't a cult of personality or specific investment advice. Mining stocks aren't being promoted. Rather it is an observation and theory about how the USD strengthens at points in the business cycle where many expect it to weaken.
I'm not sure why HN needs to be so obtuse. If we cannot have a discussion about the actual contents of an observation rather than the perceived theme, if every post needs to be prefaced by several layers of disclaimers ("I don't own a crystal ball...") about what it isn't saying, then I'm not sure it is possible to have a discussion here.
I can find YouTube videos and podcasts all day long talking about the “imminent” housing crash, and while I think these discussions are important and interesting to have, they’re little more than hypotheticals or thought experiments. I’m not saying “Brent Johnson” is a quack, but I would trust Warren Buffett over him.
I'm not insinuating that the video at the link is discussing the housing market, that's just a very typical example of the "fearmongering" clickbait videos I see on YouTube.
I must be older. I've been hearing it since the 1970s.
(Note well: I do not believe that the level of US government debt is benign. I don't think it is. But existence of this level of debt, even if it's growing, does not necessarily mean that hyperinflation is just around the corner. It makes it more possible, but it is very far from a certainty.)
I have a feeling it won't happen due to the way the assets are. A lot of this money is unrealized, and can't be realized in practical terms. What we end up with are massively wealthy individuals holding companies (fiat assets) rather than real assets like land. Part of what drives inflation is the demand. If most people have relatively low incomes because most of the money creation goes to a few, then there won't be increased competition for the masses. Basically the wealthy people are in a different market in many cases and the inflation of securities wouldn't be accounted for in the CPI.
If you are absolutely certain that hyperinflation will occur then you should borrow as much money as possible and use it to buy assets such as land and housing.