[skhunted]

Can you explain why the U.S. will experience hyperinflation while other countries that have much higher debt to gdp ratios haven’t experienced hyperinflation? When will the U.S. experience this hyperinflation? I’ve heard this prediction for the last 40 years. How much longer must I wait to experience it?

If you are absolutely certain that hyperinflation will occur then you should borrow as much money as possible and use it to buy assets such as land and housing.

[palmfacehn]

I don't own a crystal ball, but Brent Johnson's "Dollar Milkshake" feels like a reasonable take on this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=da6hMy5sp1M

[skhunted]

It’s easy to make such a convincing video. Convincing to those with no expertise in the subject. But in 5 years when it hasn’t come to fruition will you remember how wrong he (and by extension you) are? Another conman will take his place and come up with a nice sounding theory that also boils down to: gold!

[jf22]

There have been videos like this one by different people every other year to. This is just the latest one saying the same thing.

[palmfacehn]

Saying what exactly?

[palmfacehn]

I think I follow what your intended point was, but from where I stand you appear to be tilting at an imagined opponent. Maybe you can clarify by elaborating on what you imagined the 5 year prediction to be?

The "Dollar Milkshake" theory is simply something I found to be a plausible response to the inflation doom predictions of the 2008 cycle.

I did look for a concise text summary before posting the video. They didn't capture the full concept. Here's Google's infobox:

>The milkshake theory basically holds that there simply aren't enough US dollars created to keep up with the rising demand. And when the greenback rises high enough and fast enough to lead to defaults abroad, the demand for dollars swirls up and its supply shrinks, leading to an epic squeeze higher.

[skhunted]

In 5 years you’ll likely forget about this theory and this person because nothing will come of whatever predictions this person is making. For 50 years these sorts of people have been making the same sort of predictions and they have all been wrong. Empires all come to an end so eventually one of these charlatans will be right but not because of possessing insight. It’ll be a coincidence.

[palmfacehn]

> Empires all come to an end so eventually...

This is pretty much what he says in response to the Peter Schiff types of predictions. The critiques in this thread would be more aptly applied to those debating against "The Dollar Milkshake Theory".

It isn't a cult of personality or specific investment advice. Mining stocks aren't being promoted. Rather it is an observation and theory about how the USD strengthens at points in the business cycle where many expect it to weaken.

I'm not sure why HN needs to be so obtuse. If we cannot have a discussion about the actual contents of an observation rather than the perceived theme, if every post needs to be prefaced by several layers of disclaimers ("I don't own a crystal ball...") about what it isn't saying, then I'm not sure it is possible to have a discussion here.

[skhunted]

Brent Johnson is CEO of a wealth management firm. He dupes people into investing with his firm by exploiting peoples’ propensity to think “this time is different”. In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world.

Five years from you’ll have forgotten all about the dollar milkshake theory because it is most likely nothing more than plausible sounding gibberish. I could be wrong. The country may collapse and the doomsayers are right this time.

[gymbeaux]

I can find YouTube videos and podcasts all day long talking about the “imminent” housing crash, and while I think these discussions are important and interesting to have, they’re little more than hypotheticals or thought experiments. I’m not saying “Brent Johnson” is a quack, but I would trust Warren Buffett over him.

[palmfacehn]

You'd have to actually watch it to find that it isn't saying the things you've projected into it.

[gymbeaux]

I'm not insinuating that the video at the link is discussing the housing market, that's just a very typical example of the "fearmongering" clickbait videos I see on YouTube.

[palmfacehn]

That's basically the opposite of what I was attempting to discuss in this thread.