[nameless912]

A not-insignificant part of that deficit though was programs and tax cuts from the previous administration. I agree, our government probably shouldn't be allowed to spend money it doesn't have, but the obvious solution (higher taxes, especially on the wealthy) isn't politically palatable, so every president is locked into the same pattern: start a bunch of spending, but back-load the actual expenses so the next administration has to deal with it. The deficit has gone down over the last few years, which means that we're getting more revenue and saving some money, but because deficit is an easier number to digest than change-in-deficit, we keep whinging about it rather than changing anything. And then the next administration comes in and points fingers at the previous while continuing the cycle of overspending.

FWIW the current administration and Congress have done a historically slightly-above-average job of reducing the deficit, I won't call it good but it's at least not terrible. The current spending isn't the problem, it's stuff from a few years ago coming to bite us in the ass.

[willcipriano]

The deficit is down from the highs of the pandemic spending.

That's like saying the deficit is down post WW2 and taking credit for it.

[piva00]

Looking at the graphs for US Budget deficit since 1980 there's a clear pattern to it, Republican administrations tend to increase it (or maintain in percentage-to-GDP), Democrats tend to lower it:

Carter:

  year|deficit|increase|deficit-to-GDP
  
  1977  $54  $78  2.6%
  1978  $59  $73  2.5%
  1979  $41  $55  1.6%
  1980  $74  $81  2.6%
  1981  $79  $90  2.5%

Reagan + Bush Sr.:

  1981  $79  $90  2.5%
  1982  $128  $144  3.8%
  1983  $208  $235  5.7%
  1984  $185  $195  4.6%
  1985  $212  $251  4.9%
  1986  $221  $302  4.8%
  1987  $150  $225  3.1%
  1988  $155  $252  3.0%
  1989  $153  $255  2.7%
  1990  $221  $376  3.7%
  1991  $269  $432  4.4%
  1992  $290  $399  4.5%

Clinton:

  1992  $290  $399  4.5%
  1993  $255  $347  3.7%
  1994  $203  $281  2.8%
  1995  $164  $281  2.1%
  1996  $107  $251  1.3%
  1997  $22  $188  0.3%
  1998  ($69)  $113  (0.8%)
  1999  ($126)  $130  (1.3%)
  2000  ($236)  $18  (2.3%)

Bush Jr.:

  2000  ($236)  $18  (2.3%)
  2001  ($128)  $133  (1.2%)
  2002  $158  $421  1.4%
  2003  $378  $555  3.3%
  2004  $413  $596  3.4%
  2005  $318  $554  2.4%
  2006  $248  $574  1.8%
  2007  $161  $501  1.1%
  2008  $459  $1,017  3.1%
  2009  $1,413  $1,885  9.8%

Obama:

  2009  $1,413  $1,885  9.8%
  2010  $1,294  $1,652  8.6%
  2011  $1,300  $1,229  8.3%
  2012  $1,077  $1,276  6.6%
  2013  $680  $672  4.0%
  2014  $485  $1,086  2.8%
  2015  $442  $327  2.4%
  2016  $585  $1,423  3.1%

Trump:

  2017  $665  $671  3.4%
  2018  $779  $1,271  3.8%
  2019  $984  $1,203  4.6%
  2020  $3,132  $4,226  15.0%
  2021  $2,772  $1,484  12.1%

[onetimeusename]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_United_States_federal_bud...

[willcipriano]

There was what? 5 years in the past 50 that there wasn't a deficit?

Those 5 years were when the internet went mainstream and lifetime welfare was ended.

The rest of the time is occupied by bipartisan wars that we couldn't afford and lost anyway.

[piva00]

> The rest of the time is occupied by bipartisan wars that we couldn't afford and lost anyway.

Started by Bush I and Bush II.

> There was what? 5 years in the past 50 that there wasn't a deficit?

My observation was in the rate of change of the deficit, generally since the 80s Democrats seem to work for lowering the budget deficit while Republicans increase it. Which is quite absurd given the demagogy coming from the GOP about public spending, "welfare queens", austerity and so on, they are mostly the ones responsible for pushing future administrations (and generations) the burdens of their overspending.

[willcipriano]

> Started by Bush I and Bush II.

Bush started Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan?

And, better yet, then kept the wars up, for decades, despite several democratic majorities and no longer being in power himself?

Let me guess he also made them abandon the Bagram air base without any planning as well? Bush made them leave the humvees for the Taliban to use.

> GOP about public spending, "welfare queens", austerity and so on,

The only time the Democrats balanced the budget was the time they ended welfare queens and were tough on illegal immigration. Clinton from the 90's would be considered conservative today.

[piva00]

> Bush started Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan?

I thought you were talking about prolonged wars that drained the coffers like Afghanistan and Iraq requiring massive deployments of personnel and equipment. Your examples are not even in the same order of magnitude of spending (and probably not even if all are combined but it's hard to find figures on spending related to them directly). Also not comparable on the amount of human suffering caused by the US government compared to Iraq/Afghanistan.

> The only time the Democrats balanced the budget was the time they ended welfare queens and were tough on illegal immigration. Clinton from the 90's would be considered conservative today.

I don't think this is a point to what I said, if it worked for the Democrats then why the GOP with an even stronger rhetoric against welfare and immigrants cannot achieve lowering the deficit and, as the facts show, increase it every single time? Something about their policies and ideology doesn't help the budget, it's empirical.

> Let me guess he also made them abandon the Bagram air base without any planning as well? Bush made them leave the humvees for the Taliban to use.

Well, not Bush but definitely another Republican president:

> In February 2020, the Trump administration and the Taliban signed the United States–Taliban deal in Doha, Qatar, which stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban, and provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The deal, and then the Biden administration's final decision in April 2021 to pull out all US troops by September 2021 without leaving a residual force, were the two critical events that triggered the start of the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF).

[IggleSniggle]

I think when they made that comment they were talking about the rate of change, ie, whether % of GDP is trending upwards or downwards, not specifically looking at the Clinton administration.

[willcipriano]

If you want to dig further into it GDP is adjusted by the GDP deflator and that is lower than CPI.

Due to (intentional) methodological flaws like hedonic quality adjustment, owner imputed rent and a basket of good arrived at by a team of economists rather than surveys of what households are actually buying, CPI is lower than what a household needs to increase its budget by in order to stay afloat, it's lower than inflation.

Therefore if the government engaged in deficit spending and that spending resulted inflation that would result in a better percentage of GDP than expected as a lot of the "growth" is just dollars becoming less valuable.

[ihalip]

How do tax changes from a few years back affect the current deficit? Shouldn't they be already "priced in" the budget?