| It's obvious that bubbles exist in retrospect, but determining whether current growth and valuations are sustainable in the present is incredibly difficult. As another poster mentioned, we are essentially talking about market timing here. Most investors have been conditioned by many popular talking heads to immediately dismiss the idea of successful market timing - and for the most part, the talking heads are correct. For the average investor, successful market timing is nearly impossible. However, we have many counter-examples of successful market timers over the long term. James Simons' Medallion fund has returned 50%+ CAGR over a multi-decade period and stomping the market, creating many centimillionaires and billionaires in the process. I set out thinking, what's so different about Simons and his crew at RenTec? Why is it so difficult for their success to be replicated? Not one to easily back down from a challenge, I began working on my own algorithms to successfully hedge against market downturns and provide superior absolute and risk-adjusted returns compared to the S&P 500. While I haven't yet seen Simons-level success in live trading, since launching Grizzly Bulls (https://grizzlybulls.com) in January 2022, 6 of our 7 models have outperformed the market on an unleveraged basis: SPX (benchmark): +7% VIX-TA-Macro-MP Extreme: +39.98% VIX-TA-Macro Advanced: +34.38% VIX-TA Advanced: +12.92% VIX Advanced: +9.91% Vix Basic: +5.76% TA - Mean Reversion: +15.46% TA - Trend: +12.97% Of course two years of outperformance also doesn't yet stand the test of time of Simons' remarkable run, but I'm confident that we've discovered alpha here. |
“If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.” ― Warren Buffett