Even the attempt to make them again might provoke China to react. Eventually with an invasion, after slagging the facilities with cruise missiles or air bombardment. They will be committed to overwhelm any air defense to accomplish that.
What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed about their supply of nukes. North Korea has long-range missiles and literally tens of thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.
That isn't the point. Under the assumption that Japan surrendered because of the nukes, Japan was made to believe that the US could and would have conducted more nuclear strikes. The US would have required many months more for the next strike though.
Even very plausible low thousands of artillery pieces can put out enough dakka to slag anything looking even remotely like an air defense radar or missile launchers.
Air defense radars, missile launchers and even Seoul besides northern outskirts aren't generally in a range of tube artillery, which for the 152mm soviet types utilized by NK is around 20km.
And you're not putting your guns literally at the frontline - you need them more back so they don't get counterbatteried (or just bombed, which would be more likely in case of US involvement) instantly.
If Taiwan sees China assembling an invasion force, why not build a nuke then, China already signaled that it's going to attack anyway.
A nuke is easy to hide, we are not talking about global second strike capability here, just delivering a couple of them to close coastal cities, even by smuggling them in some civilian transport. Can China be 100% sure that not one slipped through? Taiwan could do a proof detonation on non-city Chinese soil if things get tense.
This doesn’t make sense. The point of nukes is to say you have them so no one touches you. You become a prickly porcupine.
The only country that doesn’t follow this rule is Israel, but they just present it differently (“MAYBE I’m a prickly porcupine. Touch me and find out.”)
>Taiwan could do a proof detonation on non-city Chinese soil if things get tense.
Gaodeng is a ROC island just five miles off the mainland. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaodeng_Island An atmospheric nuclear test there would be the wildest provocation imaginable that would not actually be on PRC soil.
It's open secret ROCA is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, and Chinese missiles can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. If anything, if PRC wants to unilaterally attack TW, you would expect PRC to manufacture casus belli that TW is pursuing nuclear program to preemptively strike TW before they even start assembling an invasion force. Most of the world would be left shrugging because nuclear proliferation of non recognized UN state is going to be jus ad bellum reason for PRC to start whacking TW indiscriminantly. The entire PRC invasion can be seen months away is stupid for this reason, they're not going to telegraph an amphib build up before destroying TWs military first. And as seen in exercises in response to Pelosi, they can pull that operation together in days, the hardware movement itself indistinguishable from exercise mobilization.
And how would they deliver? By the time they get a device (untested), every entrance to underground facilities would have been destroyed with persistent aerial coverage for follow on strikes to make sure they stay destroyed. If TW was credibly trying to nuclearize, both US/PRC would be coordinating to try stop it because PRC would directly attribute TW nuclear use to US negligence.
Realistically if PRC seriously think they haven't eliminated TW nuke production, they'd throw their entire airlift capabilites and drop 50-100k troops a day into the grind and if that doesn't work, nuke TW first and send in NBC teams to an uncontested husk of an island to clean up. If US+co materially impacts that effort and PRC ends up eating a nuke, then we're in global MAD territory.
Also consider nukes has hasn't deterred PRC from security interests less important than TW, they fought US (really all of UN in Korea) /USSR/India, threatened UK over HK, supplied Vietcon against French. If risking nuclear war is what it takes, then they'll (if history is teacher) risk nuclear war.
is not a credible deterrence. Snuggling a nuke will work maybe once, and that is not nearly enough to hit all assets Taiwan should be worried about. If the nukes work, it will strengthen China's resolve to dismantle any threat it perceives Taiwan to be. Even at the price of shooting every ship leaving the island for the mainland.
What to do with them anyways? Taiwan would need plentiful supply of them and a reliable delivery mechanism. Japan surrendered because the US had total air superiority and bluffed about their supply of nukes. North Korea has long-range missiles and literally tens of thousands of artillery pieces aimed at Seoul.