[maxglute]

It's open secret ROCA is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, and Chinese missiles can hit anywhere in TW in 7 minutes. If anything, if PRC wants to unilaterally attack TW, you would expect PRC to manufacture casus belli that TW is pursuing nuclear program to preemptively strike TW before they even start assembling an invasion force. Most of the world would be left shrugging because nuclear proliferation of non recognized UN state is going to be jus ad bellum reason for PRC to start whacking TW indiscriminantly. The entire PRC invasion can be seen months away is stupid for this reason, they're not going to telegraph an amphib build up before destroying TWs military first. And as seen in exercises in response to Pelosi, they can pull that operation together in days, the hardware movement itself indistinguishable from exercise mobilization.

[hugryhoop]

Taiwan has underground facilities from it's previous attempt at building nuclear weapons.

Even after a Chinese decimation attack, if the invasion force is not immediatly ready Taiwan will still have enough time to build the nukes.

[maxglute]

And how would they deliver? By the time they get a device (untested), every entrance to underground facilities would have been destroyed with persistent aerial coverage for follow on strikes to make sure they stay destroyed. If TW was credibly trying to nuclearize, both US/PRC would be coordinating to try stop it because PRC would directly attribute TW nuclear use to US negligence.

Realistically if PRC seriously think they haven't eliminated TW nuke production, they'd throw their entire airlift capabilites and drop 50-100k troops a day into the grind and if that doesn't work, nuke TW first and send in NBC teams to an uncontested husk of an island to clean up. If US+co materially impacts that effort and PRC ends up eating a nuke, then we're in global MAD territory.

Also consider nukes has hasn't deterred PRC from security interests less important than TW, they fought US (really all of UN in Korea) /USSR/India, threatened UK over HK, supplied Vietcon against French. If risking nuclear war is what it takes, then they'll (if history is teacher) risk nuclear war.

[hugryhoop]

US in Korea or UK in HK were not in a survival situation as Taiwan would be.

> drop 50-100k troops

That's fantasy land, most of those planes would be shot down, and if not the soldiers would land in a kill zone with no reinforcements.

[maxglute]

This is about PRC willingness to eat nukes for security interests independant of TW willingness to survive.

Shoot down with what, preempt air campaign would have destroyed most of TW anti air. Fantasy is thinking TW has any chance to deny the air game. Planner for porcupine model US advocates doesn't assume TW has any chance to deny PRC air superiority, only hope they sink enough amphib to deny mass invasion, and barring that, make the ground/urban fighting long enough until US comes to assist.

If scenario is actually about denying TW nuke run, then US won't be assisting. Only other actor with intelligence on ROCA comparble to PRC is probably US. Given stakes, things will get stupid real fast. PLA airlift will be dropping in zones secured by persistent CAS and a buffer soaked in chemical warfare on a one way mission to destroy TW nuclear infra in the mountains if they have to. Maybe TW resists fine alone, and nukes a few mainland targets (assuming no duds, and no intercepts). Then what, PRC nukes living resistance off surface of island and then waltz in bunny suits to breech production sites.

TW trying to nuclearize is automatic invasion redline for a reason. It's not like PRC has an exact contingency plan, only they'll throw everything and the kitchen sink to make sure it doesn't happen.

E: Dang is going to badger me for engaging this thread too long. We'll just have to agree to disagree on whether PRC will be deterred by TW nukes.

[another2another]

Taiwan's better option would be to build submarines with Nukes, and position them all over the Pacific.

Capturing the mainland won't help you at all in that case, and there's no way you would get them all. It would be a MAD situation, and that's all TW needs.

[samus]

Now we're taking about three expensive assets in sufficient numbers and along with the required supply chain and maintenance facilities:

- state-of-the-art submarines. Anything else can't hope to evade the Chinese, and they probably have to be nuclear as well to ensure range and stealth

- submarine-launchable missiles (ballistic or cruise), with a lot of range since China can probably deny the sea immediately off the mainland.

- nukes compact and reliable enough for the missiles