[twixfel]

I think there's deep animosity between Russia and much of the West.

It's very easy for Americans to shrug their shoulders and say "we don't care it's a long way away", regardless of whether or not that would be a historic surrender for the global hegemon, but we Europeans cannot. It's on our doorstep. Russia has not just attacked Ukraine, but all of Europe. There will never be normalised relations with Russia whilst he is in power, just as there never could be normalised relations with Adolf Hitler once he had crossed the Rubicon and started WW2.

[thriftwy]

I wonder when you will arrive at the understanding that if Russia is not going to have more revolutions, then you are going to have to live alongside Russia on the tiniest of continents and it would be best for both sides to learn how.

Is's not like you're going in with a military action and capturing Volgograd, after all. Adolf Hitler could be neutralized by capturing Berlin. Good luck dealing with Russia that way.

[The_Colonel]

Learning to live is arming the eastern NATO border to the teeth. Russia has never stopped trying to expand westward, is still very far from giving up on its imperialism and strength is the only language it understands.

[BlueTemplar]

Not sure how much (more) arming to the teeth of NATO is needed when France / UK / USA have thermonuclear ICBMs.

The problem is what to do with the likes of Georgia and Ukraine (which has been deeply regretting giving up nukes against Russian/US/UK "protection" for some years now).

[thriftwy]

Then you will have a permanent war in Europe, get used to it and make yourself comfortable.

[The_Colonel]

Can you explain? European (NATO) countries will "provoke" Russia into invading by securing their internationally recognized borders?

So far, we have seen the opposite pattern of Russia messing with countries which didn't make it into NATO in time.

[thriftwy]

There is no good way out of the situation where both sides are armed to the teeth. The best bet is a political failure of one of the sides.

If that does not happen, these sabers will be rattling from time to time. If Russia's (and China's) immediate borders are packed with countries armed to their teeth, there would be wars.

Buffer states happen for a reason.

I believe USA kind of understands this (see how they reacted to Cuba) and EU surely understands this too (see how Sweden reacts to any signs of Russian militarization), but they have trouble projecting it on other countries or still believing they can coerce these countries into "dealing with it".

[The_Colonel]

> If Russia's (and China's) immediate borders are packed with countries armed to their teeth, there would be wars.

I like this Putin's style of passive threats like "there would be wars". Just say the threat explicitly, Russia would invade their western neighbors.

> Buffer states happen for a reason.

Ukraine was a buffer state, yet it was invaded by Russia three times in the last 10 years. People have now justified doubts about this model.

[kergonath]

> There is no good way out of the situation where both sides are armed to the teeth. The best bet is a political failure of one of the sides.

Look, we tried normalising relations. In the end, Russia just takes what it can. It’s lunacy to believe that everything would be better if European countries just rolled over, accepted being bullied, and just gave Putin what he wants. It’s insane.

[petre]

We'll have another cold war, carefully watching each other like Koreans on both sides of the DMZ do. Russia likes frozen conflicts so that what they'll get, until it collapses again like the USSR did and like all empires do. The trouble with that is a bunch of unstable dictators with nukes instead of one czar with nukes.

[whimsicalism]

The comparison between Putin and Hitler is ridiculous.

Europe’s economy is in shambles, they do not have the power to push back if Russia and the US were to push for détente never mind that the country with the most EU influence (Germany) is a major dove on this issue.

[twixfel]

It's not ridiculous at all. Not all leaders can be negotiated with, that is simply my point. Maybe as an American you do not understand the depth of feeling, it does not affect you because you don't live here and subsequently you don't care. You can regress into the isolationism that the US likes to embrace every now and then. But we still have to live with an imperialist Russia on our door step.

> (Germany) is a major dove on this issue.

No, they're not dovish, they're just not leaders and not willing to take initiative and require others to move first. That stems from their history. They've sent huge amounts of aid already to Ukraine (~1% of GDP versus 0.2% of GDP for the USA).

> Europe’s economy is in shambles

I mean, it's not as good as the USA's, but it's not in shambles. It's relatively OK. I live here. I'd rather live here than in Russia. Russia is a glorified petrol station with nukes and a military. Europe's economy still absolutely dwarfs Russia's. When I speak to my (many) Russian colleagues, it's clear they'd rather be here in Germany than in Russia.

> US were to push for détente

It's not realistic. The only person who is going to do that is Trump. There's no scenario where we Europeans just give up our security and let imperial war conquests become acceptable on our continent (not yours, yank) for the sake of Trump's ego. Why? Because we think he's completely retarded. Only Americans like him. And how would we benefit exactly from trading away our security? How can the US force us? All it would do is seal the USA's historic break from its European allies (And I know it's not popular at the moment in the USA, but any one with a basic understanding of geopolitics knows that the USA's strongest asset its just how many rich and powerful allies it has). Good luck standing up to China alone, in that case. Then the West is truly fucked!

[whimsicalism]

> Not all leaders can be negotiated with, that is simply my point.

Putin isn't Hitler. People are way too quick to write off negotiation when it is people's real lives at play.

> They've sent huge amounts of aid already to Ukraine (~1% of GDP versus 0.2% of GDP for the USA).

False? not sure where you are getting your numbers from but USA has sent both considerably more in magnitude and as a percentage of the GDP through the end of 2023.

Germany doesn't even spend 2% of GDP on all military expenses (they recently pledged to as it is a new NATO requirement), they are not spending half of that on Ukraine allocation.

> It's not realistic. The only person who is going to do that is Trump.

Wavering support for the Ukraine war is not just a Trump-ism phenomenon. I am not sure how the media reports this in the UK but support is collapsing across both parties in the polls.

A majority of Americans think Trump is stupid too and you are very unlikely to meet a supporter on HN.

> Good luck standing up to China alone, in that case

US policymakers already perceive no will to stand up to China among EU lawmakers.

> And how would we benefit exactly from trading away our security? How can the US force us?

EU+UK citizens will not be willing to pay the full brunt of this conflict for an extended period of time.

The fact of the matter is that most Europeans are much more ambivalent about this conflict than you are implying [0] which is obvious from the polling. Ratchet up the spending and energy price impact to considerable portions of GDP and what will happen?

[0]: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/at-your-service/files/be-hear...

[twixfel]

>Putin isn't Hitler. People are way too quick to write off negotiation when it is people's real lives at play.

No he's not Hitler, he's Putin. Putin cannot be negotiated with, that is the point.

>False? not sure where you are getting your numbers from but USA has sent both considerably more in magnitude and as a percentage of the GDP through the end of 2023.

No it is not. My numbers are from the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/ca7fa865-97a1-4013-bde6-b69731b03...

Where are yours from? If you have better numbers, share them.

>Wavering support for the Ukraine war is not just a Trump-ism phenomenon. I am not sure how the media reports this in the UK but support is collapsing across both parties in the polls.

Wavering or collapsing? The majority still support aid for Ukraine. That much is a fact. I am not in the UK anyway, I live in Germany.

Your source for polling is sadly incoherent, just quoting random countries, but judging by this poll, it looks clear that Europeans support Ukraine:

https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/european...

But to some extent it does not matter, there is no choice, because Europe is being attacked. It's not as if we have choice but to support them. Arguably more importantly, our establishment supports Ukraine.

>US policymakers already perceive no will to stand up to China among EU lawmakers.

US policymakers firmly believe that the best way to counterbalance China is through strengthening alliances around the world.

>EU+UK citizens will not be willing to pay the full brunt of this conflict for an extended period of time.

We already are. I think a lot of you yanks like to get high on the idea of Europe being seconds from collapse, but actually things here are OK. The worst is over, that first winter after the invasion? Yeah that was tricky, but it's already past now. The way you talk it's like we're rationing supplies to make ends meet to raise money for another missile. Yes the USA is richer than Europe, but Europe is the richest place in the world after the USA, so it's OK, there's no shame in being second place. Everything's OK. Europe will ultimately do whatever it takes to see out Russia's invasion. There's no way a country with an economy the size of Spain can outlast the entirety of Europe. Russia is a paper tiger, as evidenced by how shit its military has performed ever since it invaded.

[kergonath]

> The comparison between Putin and Hitler is ridiculous.

And yet, here we are with another ultranationalist dictator hell bent on getting back that vital space and dreaming of fallen empires. Hitler had Charlemagne, and Putin has Catherine and Peter the Great. Putin did not gas anybody that I know of, but the gulags remained the whole time. It’s true that he is closer to Stalin than Hitler in many respects, but I am not sure it’s much better.

> Europe’s economy is in shambles, they do not have the power to push back if Russia and the US were to push for détente never mind that the country with the most EU influence (Germany) is a major dove on this issue.

That is a terrible misreading of how the EU functions. By design it cannot be dominated by a single country and Germany is basically following others. It’s not a major dove in any way, it’s just in the middle of the pack and they started from a fundamentally pacifist political background. The fact that they are merely talking about rearming is a demonstration of the seismic shift in domestic politics there.

Détente won’t happen in the current situation, regardless of what the US push for. They simply have no power to force that outcome. What would happen is another Korea, Georgia or Moldova: a country split in two, with one half living under yet another brutal dictatorship.