[martinald]

I think the UK by 2030 (or so) is actually going to have a really major problem with too much renewable capacity at times - not just not enough transmission capacity, just too much full stop.

There's currently 30GW of wind in the UK (offshore + onshore), plus an ambition to get another 35GW of offshore installed in the next 6 years. I'm not sure whether that will be met, but I would project at least another 20GW of offshore wind will come online based on in construction/approved projects by 2030.

At that point we'll have 55GW of wind, plus a huge amount of solar (probably 25GW minimum, potentially a lot lot more).

UK electricity consumption is very low per capita and it is falling rapidly with not much sign of this changing.

I think we are going to be in a position where we have (way) too much power at least 50% of the year.

Some will be able to be used for storage, and some potentially exported via HVDC, but I fear the generation on windy + sunny days will be pretty enormous.

This would all get sorted out by 'the market' but CfD contracts basically pay to keep producing whatever the price (I believe some of the contracts may have changed slightly on this). Which really distorts the market.

[ta1243]

Scope for the increase in electric use between electric cars (244b vehicle miles, or 60TWh) and moving from gas to heatpumps (250TWh of domestic gas usage, so 80TWh), that adds a constant load 24/7 of 15GW (if it were evenly spread through the year)

[s8s8discourse]

SME industrial production. Business electricity is/can be significantly more expensive than domestic electricity prices. It's a significant variable cost.

Consider a small CNC routing enterprise running 4 machines. Each machine averages 25kW, with extraction, air supply etc contributing another 50kw. Heating the space in winter (CNC routers lock out if the ambient temperature drops below 18c) is incredibly inefficient, because when the extractors are running you're emptying the workshop of air (that you paid to heat) multiple times an hour.

Pre-covid the hourly electricity run rate would be in the region of £45/hr (0.27p / kWh)

At the worst of the energy price crises, the run rate was > £180/hr (I know of one shop that was paying 111p/kWh for a period).

Now we're paying 0.38p / kWh or £70/hr. That's a baseline increase of >£10k a year...

SME workshops have died because their pricing model just couldn't flex to accommodate that.

STABLE energy pricing is equally important as CHEAP energy pricing.

[ta1243]

SME workshops made an assumption they would be able to get cheap electricity for the entire time. The reason prices went upto 111p/kWh was because of the price of gas and oil skyrocketting as demand ballooned post covid, sanctions hit, and fears of war skyrocketed. That's nothing to do with renewables.

If variation is a significant and long term then grid sized storage will buy low and sell high.

[martinald]

You can fix for 24 months at 21p/kWh now with octopus business.

I think half the problem of this is people signing terrible business energy deals and not switching aggressively enough.

[martinald]

Yes I get that, but even adding 15GW to current demand doesn't really move the needle as much as you'd think. I'm also not sure it will be soaked up entirely, EVs yes but heat pumps I'm not as sure about.

[ta1243]

Depends on policy, but if policy pushes domestic gas out then heating comes form either heatpumps or resistive heating (which would be far more)

[flir]

With the shift to electric vehicles and heat pumps, I doubt it. But if we reach the point where we're regularly overproducing electricity, there are some steel producers who would be happy to solve that problem for us.

[tyingq]

That's interesting, and looking at per-capita use graphs over the years...seems predictable. Are there any major sectors of "use" that would shift if electricity were cheap enough? Like, for example...in the UK, is any significant part of building/home heating, or industrial production still gas or fuel oil?

[CiaranMcNulty]

The majority of existing homes and hot water supplies use natural gas

[Retric]

As long as it’s actually cheap that’s not an issue. Swapping to a resistance heater when electricity rates cost less than natural gas is a cheap and straightforward way to suck up excess electricity in the winter. Unfortunately, UK fees may prevent ultra low retail rates even if wholesale power is cheap.

A more elaborate system can use predicted rates and thermal mass with heat pumps to dramatically reduce energy costs while also shifting demand to peak production periods.

[simmerup]

Wouldn’t we just use more electricity?

I know I cut back on my electric because it costs 28p per kwh, which is crazy high.

[londons_explore]

And only like 6.7p/kWh is the actual cost of the electricity. All the rest is government taxes, fees, eco incentive schemes, smart meter rollout schemes, etc.

Considering how critical the cost of energy is to the economic success of a country, it was a really dumb move to let anyone bolt compulsory extra charges onto the cost of energy.

[pydry]

Yep, and start using electricity when it is cheaper. Already some of my friends have their car chargers hooked up to octopus agile.

I'm thinking of hooking my house up to it to take advantage of those periods of crazy cheap electricity.

I think we're so used to electricity being the same price all the time because we all emerged from the coal world that it blinds us to the options available to shift demand.

[marcosscriven]

Who do you get energy from? Octopus Tracker is currently 15p, and not been over 19p for months. A few days in December it was down to 7p.

[simmerup]

Really?! I’m on ‘Flexible Octopus’ — the only alternative they’re offering me is Octopus Fixed which is 26p per kwh for 12 months

Edit; Oh, I see, I need a smart meter to get Tracker. I’m a renter so not sure about the process for getting a smart meter there

[martinald]

Yes this is the best kept 'secret' in the UK power market right now. It's basically half price. I was expecting prices to spike over the winter a bit and reduce the savings but they haven't.

Paying approx 15p/kWh for electricity and 4p/kWh for gas, which is about half of the price cap rates.

[simmerup]

Thanks for the info.I need to sort my smart meter. My gas at the moment is 7.3p per kwh

[pjc50]

> I think we are going to be in a position where we have (way) too much power at least 50% of the year.

This seems ridiculous to cite as a problem, at a time when people are facing record high bills, but perhaps some time between now and then the subsidy can be tapered a bit.

[martinald]

The problem is that having too much power massively increases bills for end users (that is the more abstract point of the article), as we need to pay wind farm operators to shut them down.

If we have guaranteed a £50/MWh CfD to a wind or solar producer, and we have too much power on the grid , then you need to pay them ~£50/MWh to shut off (otherwise they'd just keep producing).

If we had for example 20GW surplus capacity on the grid at any one time paying £50/MWh for curtailment costs £1m/hr which then billpayers have to pay. This is highly simplified but hopefully gets the point I'm trying to make across.