[ta1243]

Scope for the increase in electric use between electric cars (244b vehicle miles, or 60TWh) and moving from gas to heatpumps (250TWh of domestic gas usage, so 80TWh), that adds a constant load 24/7 of 15GW (if it were evenly spread through the year)

[s8s8discourse]

SME industrial production. Business electricity is/can be significantly more expensive than domestic electricity prices. It's a significant variable cost.

Consider a small CNC routing enterprise running 4 machines. Each machine averages 25kW, with extraction, air supply etc contributing another 50kw. Heating the space in winter (CNC routers lock out if the ambient temperature drops below 18c) is incredibly inefficient, because when the extractors are running you're emptying the workshop of air (that you paid to heat) multiple times an hour.

Pre-covid the hourly electricity run rate would be in the region of £45/hr (0.27p / kWh)

At the worst of the energy price crises, the run rate was > £180/hr (I know of one shop that was paying 111p/kWh for a period).

Now we're paying 0.38p / kWh or £70/hr. That's a baseline increase of >£10k a year...

SME workshops have died because their pricing model just couldn't flex to accommodate that.

STABLE energy pricing is equally important as CHEAP energy pricing.

[ta1243]

SME workshops made an assumption they would be able to get cheap electricity for the entire time. The reason prices went upto 111p/kWh was because of the price of gas and oil skyrocketting as demand ballooned post covid, sanctions hit, and fears of war skyrocketed. That's nothing to do with renewables.

If variation is a significant and long term then grid sized storage will buy low and sell high.

[martinald]

You can fix for 24 months at 21p/kWh now with octopus business.

I think half the problem of this is people signing terrible business energy deals and not switching aggressively enough.

[martinald]

Yes I get that, but even adding 15GW to current demand doesn't really move the needle as much as you'd think. I'm also not sure it will be soaked up entirely, EVs yes but heat pumps I'm not as sure about.

[ta1243]

Depends on policy, but if policy pushes domestic gas out then heating comes form either heatpumps or resistive heating (which would be far more)