This line of argument tends to be a delaying tactic by those that don't want the West to do anything substantial domestically. Also China's not the country that pulled out of global climate accords.
Fossil fuel usage in US and EU has stagnated but is increasing in China. I would say that the house is pretty tidy and waiting for major renovation - but the fact is - what ever pace of usage reduction does not counterbalance exponential usage increase.
US became the largest oil and lng exporter in the world.
10 million barrels of oil per day, 10 billion cubic feet of LNG per day.
Enabling exponential usage.
If PRC fossil imports is counted against her usage, then US fossil exports should be counted against hers to balance the account (and other major fossil producers). And that front, US is both the greatest fossil fuels user - 30% more than PRC in aggregate, and 6x more per capita, while also enabling other to use fossil fuels post shale boom. More than ANY other fossil exporter.
You are missing the forest behind the trees, I'm afraid of. The reason behind the increase of US fossil fuel production is geopolitical to suppress Russian profits and its ability to finance its genocidal war. Russia can't lower much of its production cost. Major part of the Russian state budget is based on profits from the fossil fuel sales - no profits, no war.
If US didn't increase its production then Russia could sell at higher price and many countries would be forced to buy it as there would be no alternative. This would allow it to continue the war longer and possibly attack more countries.
Unfortunately the formula of the problem is complex with many variables. There are no easy solutions.
The best strategy we have right now is to convince China to reduce its fossil fuel usage so everyone else could scale down.
All this is saying is countries will produce/consume fossil fuels according to self interest. US shale/oil export boomed years before RU/UKR war, same with planned LNG expansion. That kind of infra didn't get planned and built in the last 2 years. It just so happens the war validated US prior geostrategic goal of being fossil fuels exporter. Eitherway, why would PRC be convinced to reducing use when it's at 1/6 per capital of US. West has to ramp down per capital usage to PRC levels for that proposal to make sense.
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And the only effect of PRC consuming more energy for manufacturing is other countries can manufacture less. Why do we need to reshore / diversify / build redundant factories/supply chains. Clearly that's in jest, but the logic works both ways, why would PRC not harness energy to improve her geopolitic posture when US is using it to enhance hers. Long term demand also works on efficiency paradox, the more supply there is, the cheaper something becomes and the more it tends to be used. US ramping up more supply/reduces, or rather increase cost of green transition. Large reason why oil demand is set to plateau long term is PRC is using oil to make renewables with cheap RU and Iranian oil. The point is, as long as US benefits from being fossil exporter by playing up her geologic advantages, PRC is going to reap benefit from converting fossil to goods by playing up her manufacturing advantages.
I'm was talking about the recent increase. But in longer term global oil production depends on demand. You can't sell more than there is demand for. The only effect US production increase has is that other countries can sell less. Considering that Russia will use oil income directly for expansionist wars and Iran will finance global terrorism then it is only a positive outcome.
When it comes to wealth then nobody demanded China to participate in single party controlled economy experiments that crippled its economical growth for decades and kept large parts of its population poor. Lets remind that this is the (perhaps naive) goodwill of the West that has allowed China to prosper.
Another point when it comes to per capita usage: China has tripled its population by close to 3 times post WW2. While US population has also increased then it has been in large part by immigration (including Chinese immigrants). The same applies to EU - they are sinks for the population growth in other countries while their native population declines.
Yes, per capita primary energy consumption of China is 2.5 times less than that of US, but US consumption is already by itself incredibly high. The difference between China and Germany is only 1.3 times and China is using more energy per capita than is United Kingdom.
So it is by no degree justified for China to expect the same level per capita energy usage as United States.
The first step for China is to stop aggressive increase in fossil fuel usage. If it can signal that it can be cooperative then other countries can make further adjustments. If China does not play along, US will neither.
Let's imagine in simple numbers that "our" usage is 10 right now and by "tons of improvements" we could reduce it to 8. In this example China has 10 too, but is increasing its usage 10% in year and would use close to 20 after 8 years. Now how much sense would these "tons of improvements" make?
It does not come for free. If China can at the same time use cheaper cost of production to compete against countries that have to increase their cost then other countries will loose. In both scenario everybody loses in the end but in the first scenario China will come out on top until then. The only winnable long term strategy is when China will play along all the time.
America with more stringent environmental laws will do more to combat carbon emissions, and manufacturing will move overseas. China makes more carbon. Is this your win?
Let me repeat the main point. If China does not participate then everyone is doomed. If China does not participate then everyone else who will participate will start suffering right now and will be still doomed while China will stay on top until the end. Doing something while China does not participate is meaningless self delusion.
China is hit by climate change too. Every side has to fix theirs first or how could you (rich west, that profited mostly from unsustainable economic growth) ever make demands to anyone else. Take it from the game theory perspective. Everyone or noone. And which side is the easiest to change?
To me, the answer is simple and just pointing at whataboutthem is just short sighted, like building a wall to fix internal crime rates.
Everybody took advantage. The West had stagnating population growth that made it possible to have wealth growth. Everybody else had exponentially exploding population (also unsustainable, but prohibited to become rich on the individual level) that from the evolutionary perceptive gave everyone much higher benefits.
Now the fossil fuel usage in the West is stagnating or even decreasing. If China will not play along then everybody will loose. Even when the West would stop its fossil fuel usage tomorrow, the total amount of fossil fuel usage will keep growing. Everybody will loose but until it happens, China will stay on top while everybody else will start suffering already today. Everyone who is smart will not play along in this game.
The only real solution is possible when China start cooperating.