[rvz]

I only have one prediction for 2024 with increasing likelihood of happening due to yet another chaotic election year, after reviewing the predictions for 2023 in [0].

* Another war will be started in the east. This time most likely with China invading Taiwan due to the weakness of leadership in the US under Biden. If Biden gets elected again, then it will certainly happen. Otherwise, the invasion will be further delayed.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38828538

[randomopining]

Trump's MO is to "make a deal" where we actually lose out but he gains face with his supporter cabal.

Biden has literally said that we would defend Taiwan. China doesn't want to risk defeat. With Trump they know they can make some sort of weird deal to essentially get the win. It's not like the military would operate any differently in a conflict, the Pres barely influences their plans.

[nirav72]

From a political and strategic standpoint - It makes no sense for China to attempt an invasion of Taiwan in 2024. If anything, they're better off waiting to see who wins the U.S presidential election in November. Because huge policy difference on involvement there between Biden and Trump.

Edit: One caveat being how badly China's economy does in the first half of 2024.

[idontwantthis]

Which President are you saying is less likely to fight China? The one that started the trade war or the one that publicly announced the US would defend Taiwan and has been actively changing defensive posture to the Pacific and developing new weapons and capabilities aimed at that theater?

I don’t see a big policy difference between the two and I definitely don’t see how Biden has been weak (gp). It would be easy for Trump to sell a war with China to his voters.