[jkukul]

Thanks for the insightful comment.

I guess they can still conveniently schedule when the layoffs are announced and make it happen right before the 10b5-1 schedule?

All the previous layoffs announcements were followed by the stock rising up.

[bradjohnson]

Exactly. The 10b5-1 schedule is a layer of misdirection, but the executives still have their hands firmly on the levers of price manipulation.

[rco8786]

There is no way to know what effect a layoff will have on stock price in advance. This sale would have happened in the exact same way if the stock had tanked after the layoff.

[RankingMember]

> There is no way to know what effect a layoff will have on stock price in advance

Sure, but looking at precedent gives you info to make a good bet- the last 2 Spotify layoffs this year each caused their stock to jump.

[rco8786]

Sure. It's possible he decided he wanted to use a layoff as a way to make a gamble on the stock price before a scheduled sale.

However there is no actual evidence of this, so let's be careful about breaking out the pitchforks. This sale would have happened even if the stock tanked 50%.

[bradjohnson]

It's not just Spotify layoffs that have caused stock pumps this year. Plenty of other large tech companies have experienced the same pump due to layoffs. It's a pretty good gamble.

The 10b5-1 schedule is referenced often by executives as an alibi against insider trading. Let's just be realistic that it likely doesn't prevent anything of the sort.

[rco8786]

It is. At best. A gamble. There are more than enough examples of companies doing layoffs and experiencing stock losses.

Let’s be realistic that this trade was a) always going to happen no matter the stock price, b) the CEO does not have a crystal ball, and c) there is no evidence of the CEO timing layoffs as a ploy for personal gain.

It’s easy to get caught up in conspiracies that we want to be true.

Imagine if the timing were juuuust a little different, what the headlines would be. "Spotify CEO cashes in on millions before announcing layoffs". Hmmm.

[rco8786]

> I guess they can still conveniently schedule when the layoffs are announced and make it happen right before the 10b5-1 schedule?

This is still a gamble at best. Let's not go down a conspiracy rabbit hole here.

CEOs have their trading schedules set well in advance, they do not know how the market will respond to their actions ahead of time. They can at best make an educated guess.

But the idea that he scheduled this layoff specifically for personal gain is pretty unfounded.