[BluSyn]

Nvidia should enjoy this period while it lasts. I fail to see any future where custom ASICs don't each their lunch.

There's so much opportunity for custom silicon to massively improve compute-per-watt -- for both for training and inference. Nvidia got lucky with their high-memory GPUs being early to this space, but the usefulness of that architecture has already peaked.

[DoingIsLearning]

I see plenty of custom ASIC startups but they all struggle to get decent funding. Which means they are all one tape-out away from insolvency.

I don't really see NVIDIA's dominance changing (other than whatever AMD has in the pipeline) Unless VC's change their risk appetite and take interest in HW startup funding which seems unlikely considering the avg returns and success rate of HW startups.

[BluSyn]

In the short-term the ASICs won't come from startups. Think companies that already have custom silicon + deep pockets + a need to squeeze every watt at scale.

Eg, Google (TPU), Apple (NPU), Amazon, Telsa (Dojo), Microsoft/OpenAI, etc.