[DoingIsLearning]

I see plenty of custom ASIC startups but they all struggle to get decent funding. Which means they are all one tape-out away from insolvency.

I don't really see NVIDIA's dominance changing (other than whatever AMD has in the pipeline) Unless VC's change their risk appetite and take interest in HW startup funding which seems unlikely considering the avg returns and success rate of HW startups.

[BluSyn]

In the short-term the ASICs won't come from startups. Think companies that already have custom silicon + deep pockets + a need to squeeze every watt at scale.

Eg, Google (TPU), Apple (NPU), Amazon, Telsa (Dojo), Microsoft/OpenAI, etc.