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by hollerith
948 days ago
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You know how healthy smart young people are always in a hurry to accomplish something or another? There's good reason to expect that the first AI with dangerous cognitive capacities will be like that. It's likely to the turn the Earth and Moon into spaceships because that is the fastest way to exert an effect on matter far away (for which space ships and lots of fuel is needed). Sparing Earth and disassembling Mars and Venus takes longer because the AI came into existence on Earth. >leave the beautiful and interesting diversity of life on earth alone If you know of a way to make an AI of superhuman cognitive capabilities care even a tiny bit about beauty and the diversity of life, you should explain your proposal over on lesswrong.com and someone will pay you to work on it just like a multitude of funding sources have been paying alignment researchers for the last 20 years. So, far none of the lines of research resulting from this 20 years of funding looks promising. >The existential doom scenarios are more like Pascal's wagers, that have to be given attention due to Bayesian thinking not allowing to assign 0 probability to anything No, an AI's killing everybody is the outcome an informed person would naturally expect from the current deplorable situation in the AI field. |
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I also see AI more as an economy. The economy already does not care about individual humans, even crushing them without any remorse if it furthers GDP. This also means there is not a single AI that can dominate all of the economy, since other AIs won't give away all their resources. A single AI perpetually self-improving and taking control of nearly all resources is much like a perpetual motion machine.
ChatGPT already thinks turning the entire planet into paperclips is a waste of potential and diversity. Agents that favor and seek out novelty (data that they can't yet compress very well, but that has available structure/patterns for compression) already weigh humanity over randomness or the cold void of space.
To me, the natural outcome, is humanity rising and falling, just like civilizations rise and fall. The miracle of AGI may very well save us from that. Our current deplorable situation can likely only be fixed by a more advanced species. So, while AI's killing everybody is still possible, it is more likely we kill everybody if we don't get to AGI. At least, that has a prior.