[mc32]

>MAD should prevent this, like it does in North Korea

I thought MAD only worked with rational players. Do we know the people who would hold the levers would be rational? We (the west) don't seem to have the same feedback network (i.e. spies) we could depend on as we did with the USSR. That and we had the "red phone" thing. Dunno if that was more gimmick than actual tool.

>I don't buy neo-conservative...

We don't know what the control structure behind such threat there would be. Can one person cause a launch, conversely, can one person override a launch order?

[barrkel]

Yes, I believe that leaders who are able to control a country are rational players.

(I think nuclear weapons are probably the greatest ever contributory factor to world peace in absolute terms. I'm certain that the 20th century would have been far, far bloodier throughout its span had they not been invented.)

[berntb]

>>Yes, I believe that leaders who are able to control a country are rational players.

Maybe you should read some history about some of the kings we've had in Europe? (Or of some of the African dictators over the last century. Same thing, different name.) [Edit: Just consider this; because someone is rational doesn't mean they stay rational.]

Then please check "the resource curse" on Wikipedia.

In short, oil countries don't become democracies. It is too lucrative for leaders of countries with lots of natural resource income to oppress the population and steal the money. (Norway was a democracy long before the oil.)

Do you really want to condemn the Iranians to a religious dictator until the oil is gone?

Edit: Instead of the word "Iran" and "they", how about you use a more relevant term like "torturing and terrorist junta"? The (upper class!) Iranians I've known around Sweden were, more or less, as west oriented as any Scandinavian.

[barrkel]

Do you think there is a rational alternative for Iran other than pursuing nuclear weapons? (I don't think there is.)

Do you think there is a way of stopping Iran from gaining nuclear weapons? Short of a pre-emptive nuclear strike or an invasion, I don't think there is - and I don't believe either will be pursued.

So what happens when you have to think what you seem to think is unthinkable?

Iran will get nuclear arms. What then?

Listen, I'm not arguing that it is right that Iran gets nuclear arms. I just think it's inevitable and it is obviously in their own best interests given the situation they are facing.

I'm trying to figure out what the situation is after the inevitable occurs, and Iran already has nuclear arms. Debate over whether the players are rational or not is actually irrelevant. If they are not rational, Iran will be wiped from the earth. But there's really little that can or could have been done in that scenario, so it doesn't really need much thought.

[berntb]

>>, I'm not arguing that it is right that Iran gets nuclear arms.

Sorry, but you do sound like you have an agenda.

You made a claim that the Iran junta won't be insane, I showed it is wrong by trivial historical examples. Now you make a different claim. [Edit: And ignored my other point.]

Edit: If I should bother to answer the new point, about what will happen: Saudi Arabia Turkey and others will start high speed nuclear weapons programs. That is not even in the Iranian interest.

[barrkel]

What agenda do you think I have? That I want Iran to be nuclear armed? I do not; but I think the alternatives are worse (nuclear strikes on Iran, US invasion of Iran; I think a conventional strike on Iran would have a similar effect to the Israeli one on Iraq in 1981).

Please tell me what you think my agenda is before discussing anything further. It's a pretty serious accusation.

[berntb]

I motivated that statement. You don't have anything to say about that, either?

Edit: Sigh, the "answer" below just repeats the previous, it is still not touching what I wrote. AGAIN:

1. I killed an argument (rational is just not in "kings" historically) -- you just ignored it.

2. I noted that this would probably result in a nuclear race with at least the traditional competitors of Iran -- Turkey and SA.

3. This religious junta will almost certainly torture, rape and oppress the Iranian population as long as there is oil, without external intervention.

I think you will just repeat your position while ignoring everything else. Hence, an agenda of some sort that you want to get out.