[berntb]

>>Yes, I believe that leaders who are able to control a country are rational players.

Maybe you should read some history about some of the kings we've had in Europe? (Or of some of the African dictators over the last century. Same thing, different name.) [Edit: Just consider this; because someone is rational doesn't mean they stay rational.]

Then please check "the resource curse" on Wikipedia.

In short, oil countries don't become democracies. It is too lucrative for leaders of countries with lots of natural resource income to oppress the population and steal the money. (Norway was a democracy long before the oil.)

Do you really want to condemn the Iranians to a religious dictator until the oil is gone?

Edit: Instead of the word "Iran" and "they", how about you use a more relevant term like "torturing and terrorist junta"? The (upper class!) Iranians I've known around Sweden were, more or less, as west oriented as any Scandinavian.

[barrkel]

Do you think there is a rational alternative for Iran other than pursuing nuclear weapons? (I don't think there is.)

Do you think there is a way of stopping Iran from gaining nuclear weapons? Short of a pre-emptive nuclear strike or an invasion, I don't think there is - and I don't believe either will be pursued.

So what happens when you have to think what you seem to think is unthinkable?

Iran will get nuclear arms. What then?

Listen, I'm not arguing that it is right that Iran gets nuclear arms. I just think it's inevitable and it is obviously in their own best interests given the situation they are facing.

I'm trying to figure out what the situation is after the inevitable occurs, and Iran already has nuclear arms. Debate over whether the players are rational or not is actually irrelevant. If they are not rational, Iran will be wiped from the earth. But there's really little that can or could have been done in that scenario, so it doesn't really need much thought.

[berntb]

>>, I'm not arguing that it is right that Iran gets nuclear arms.

Sorry, but you do sound like you have an agenda.

You made a claim that the Iran junta won't be insane, I showed it is wrong by trivial historical examples. Now you make a different claim. [Edit: And ignored my other point.]

Edit: If I should bother to answer the new point, about what will happen: Saudi Arabia Turkey and others will start high speed nuclear weapons programs. That is not even in the Iranian interest.

[barrkel]

What agenda do you think I have? That I want Iran to be nuclear armed? I do not; but I think the alternatives are worse (nuclear strikes on Iran, US invasion of Iran; I think a conventional strike on Iran would have a similar effect to the Israeli one on Iraq in 1981).

Please tell me what you think my agenda is before discussing anything further. It's a pretty serious accusation.

[berntb]

I motivated that statement. You don't have anything to say about that, either?

Edit: Sigh, the "answer" below just repeats the previous, it is still not touching what I wrote. AGAIN:

1. I killed an argument (rational is just not in "kings" historically) -- you just ignored it.

2. I noted that this would probably result in a nuclear race with at least the traditional competitors of Iran -- Turkey and SA.

3. This religious junta will almost certainly torture, rape and oppress the Iranian population as long as there is oil, without external intervention.

I think you will just repeat your position while ignoring everything else. Hence, an agenda of some sort that you want to get out.

[barrkel]

I think both of:

(a) that Iran would not be irrational. This is my considered opinion based on all I've read - Iranian politics seem subtle to me, with a tug of war between president, chief cleric and "Guardian Council" - a long, long way short of a despotic single point of failure.

and (b) if it was irrational, there's little we could do about it, unless the preemptive strike / invasion route is taken, and that level of US aggression would encourage even more countries to pursue nuclear weapons. The US would essentially be a huge armed bully roaming the neighbourhood threatening people not to get guns, and breaking into random houses searching for guns. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that that policy is eventually going to convince the neighbours to get some guns.

I think there's a range of options here; I tend towards de-escalation and looking at things with a cool head. There's far too much drum beating and propaganda pumping going on for my liking.

PS: I wish you would reply, rather than edit your comments after the fact. It makes things very hard to read.

1. I killed an argument (rational is just not in "kings" historically) -- you just ignored it.

I addressed it twice: firstly, that it does not apply (no single point of failure like a king, in this answer here), and secondly, it does not actually matter. By my score I "killed" your own argument twice!

2. I noted that this would probably result in a nuclear race with at least the traditional competitors of Iran -- Turkey and SA.

Sure. And your point is?

(My point is that when something is inevitable, talking about the bad consequences of it is pointless. It's going to happen. And bad consequences will happen too. Just is. But do you honestly think a US invasion of Iran would be a better outcome than a nuclear-armed Turkey? SA?)

3. This religious junta will almost certainly torture, rape and oppress the Iranian population as long as there is oil, without external intervention.

Lots of regimes oppress their populations far more than Iran does. How about starting with North Korea? Invasion, particularly as recent experience has shown, does not usually result in "saving" the population. Most countries in oppressive rule don't have the social infrastructure built up for a better system, and besides, particularly in the Middle East, they suffer from Dutch Disease. (This is actually your own earlier point, FWIW; I ignored it because it wasn't relevant, but it is relevant here to your apparent (yet cowardly silent!) advocation of intervention.)

I think you will just repeat your position while ignoring everything else. Hence, an agenda of some sort that you want to get out.

You're lucky I even saw what you wrote here, because you didn't actually reply to my comment.

[mc32]

>firstly, that it does not apply (no single point of failure like a king, in this answer here)

I'm a bit late coming into this discussion. But I think I should like to clarify that Kings were not all powerful autocrats. They had councils and other Kings they had to answer to. Still, some went "rogue" as it were.

So to me the question is, could one of the people who control the levers "go rogue" do they/would they have controls to guard against that?

[berntb]

You argue like there is only two alternatives -- total war or that Iran's junta gets hundreds of nuclear weapons on strategic missiles. It just isn't true.

1. mc32 adressed this, so the historic precedent stands. You acknowledge that you have no clue how Iran's junta is -- or how it will be in the coming ten years. (Sure, no one else has a clue, maybe not even in Qom.) The president do seems out, he didn't take orders well enough. We just cannot rely on sanity in the Iranian junta over the coming decade, since we just don't know; if the junta wanted peace, they can get it tomorrow.

2. There were occasions close to buttons pressed in the cold war... A nuclear race in the unstable Middle East is NOT a good thing; many millions might die. (Already Assad threatened the whole Mid East, to stop regime change!)

3. No one will use many billions of dollars on regime change to protect the Iranians from their present regime. Even if it is the humane thing to do. Dictators today rely on this.

But to leave the present situation alone is just not an alternative, because the next crazy junta will go for nuclear weapons with that as a motivation (South America?).

Iran's junta can be dealt with. It is a matter of motivation.

At present, Russia support any large weapon customers; given enough motivation, they'd change tune. The West can change Russia/China on this. Then you can start by e.g. finish destroying the Iranian economy. If they can't sell oil, the junta will react.

It is just a question if you want to pay a price now or maybe millions of lives, later. I can't do the evaluation; I hope that Obama is not too preoccupied with the next election.