[throwaway4good]

How much popular support does Navalny have in Russia?

(I realize Russia is a banana republic and Navalny is a hero but does he actually represent something that has wide support in Russia? From the few Russians I have talked to, they seems supportive of Putin despite everything.)

[thejackgoode]

It may be unusual or surprising even but I don't think it matters who has popular support in Russia - Russians have lost the minimum agency they had in the mid 90s. There was a failed attempt to regain it in 2011 but it was crushed.

[thriftwy]

He is largely irrelevant now. He was significantly popular, but there is a combination of:

1. Many of his most fervent followers fleeing the country in February or September 2022.

2. His team being useless and consisting of people of very questionable loyalty (the question remains why he let them all in), and in many cases under their own brands.

3. Overall switch from the anti-corruption discourse towards different set of topics, such as war, etc - where he does not have much relevance.

4. Him being AFK (not to blame him for that).

5. His organization FBK now resides abroad, burning grant money and not doing anything useful for Russian residents.

[hvis]

1 and 5 are semi-true, 2 is false (both parts), 3 and 4 are fair enough.

The overall statement is false (he remains the most recognized opposition figure in the country).

[walteweiss]

On top of that, the guy is literally a racist, if anyone cares to explore his past. But he’s all hero these days, because he wants to be in charge of Russian regime instead of Putin. He’s portrayed as a fighter for freedom, while actually right now, any Ukrainian soldier does more to protect the values of democracy. By literally fighting tooth and nail for it. But nobody seems to care about a Ukrainian soldier as much as they care about just one person from Russia, isn’t it?

[jimmymmcgill]

Was waiting for this comment. Yes he did (have to) ally with nationalists in the past. He did say negative things about migrants. Nevertheless, he stated multiple times since then that it's not his views anymore.

Speaking of racism and nationalism, let's be honest Euromaidan in 2014 would never succeed without the support of the Right Sector. This type of brutal force was missing in Belarus 2020 protests.

[orwin]

It still have support from both a nationalist right and an internationalist left. Let's not forget the only anarchist regime that beat out an Army was Ukrainian, and that has a certain appeal to the left. I have three friends and I know that a complete antifa cell went there (some came back, war seems terrible even if you 'just' want to volonteer at a hospital). Regardless, it's followed by the entire political spectrum.

[thriftwy]

He was hoping to get elected. You need to have broad popular support to get elected (see Trump), hence the "views".

Some time later it became apparent that he is not going to be elected and elections will not be the thing, so the new plan was getting paid by State Dept NGOs, with corresponding change to "views".

My personal take on Navalny is that he mostly was a charismatic opportunist, but eventually that lured him in a trap.

[dfadsadsf]

>But nobody seems to care about a Ukrainian soldier as much as they care about just one person from Russia, isn’t it?

Ukrainians should be grateful for support they get and dramatically reduce sense of entitlement. US provided more material support to Ukraine in the last year than to any other country in history. Constant whining becomes tedious and defense of the democracy argument is questionable.

[walteweiss]

Could it be because of the Budapest Memorandum? Ever heard of that?

[ClumsyPilot]

its imposible to know, no man on the street will admit supporting him for obvious reasons

[r721]

One poll from May 2023 that I saw (the pollster is quite respectable):

"When asked 300 days before presidential elections Russians say they would vote for:

30,2% Putin

2% Prigozhin

2% Navalny

1.3% Zhirinovsky (who is dead)"

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1663222792605630464

https://russianfield.com/300days

Not a lot, but still higher than other non-Putin candidates (except Prigozhin, who is now dead)

[viralpraxis]

I believe it does not represent the actual state of affairs.

Firstly, many people wouldn't say they'd vote for Navalny -- that's just against the self-preservation instincts.

Secondly, there are many people who are not "in love" with Navalny, his team and personal views, but still think he'd be a much better president than Putin.

I'd personally estimate the count of people here (in Russia) that are neutral/neutral-positive/positive about Navalny at 15-25%. And much higher at hightech giants and top univesities at Moscow/Saint-Petersburg.

[squarefoot]

So, except Putin, all others are either dead or rendered inoffensive and likely be killed as well after the public forgets about them.

[r721]

Just for clarity: I copy-pasted from a tweet, the list is longer on the actual chart from the poll: https://thumb.tildacdn.com/tild3833-6564-4031-b932-623365633...

[squarefoot]

Thanks, the link provided didn't work for me, but I forgot I've twitter and other online services redirected through libredirect and many of its endpoint stopped working a while ago. My fault.

[ivan_gammel]

Plenty of other candidates are spoilers that add legitimacy to elections. They may have some popular support, but time to time they make statements or do something that portrays them as clowns to the majority, reducing their electoral base and making them not dangerous to Putin.

[RetroTechie]

So, with Putin out of the picture he'd be leading the pack?

[r721]

It's hard to predict. It probably depends on how exactly Putin would be "out of the picture".

[petre]

I'm sure the FSB has the likes of Naryshin, Patrushev or Bortnikov up their sleeve with Putin out of the picture. Putin was virtually unknown when he was first appoined as president. Win a Chechen war by throwing countless human and material resources at it, then you're wildly popular. If you come to think about it, Russia has only gained territories during Putin's leadership.

The political landscape in Russia is basically this: United Russia, commies and ultranationalists. All of these are pro war with the exception of a single party with a single member in the Duma, which opposes the war due to economic reasons.

[HenryBemis]

I remember watching a documentary about Navalny (was it on Netflix?). The positive thing is that he is against Putin. The negative thing (imho) is that he is a 'fake' person, proper salesman, tells you what YOU want to hear/what sells and not his original ideas. He changed ideas and opinions too much, too fast in the past. He started out making crappy videos on YT about various topics. If he wouldn't oppose Putin he would be a very low-yield <insert name of some youtube comentator-troll>.

[victorbjorklund]

Extremely little. His a nationalist (has argued for occupation of Crimea, genocide in Georgia, "cleansing" russia of non-whites, etc) that is irrelevant in Russia and only popular abroad in the west with people that don't speak Russian and don't know his actual nationalistic positions.