[r721]

One poll from May 2023 that I saw (the pollster is quite respectable):

"When asked 300 days before presidential elections Russians say they would vote for:

30,2% Putin

2% Prigozhin

2% Navalny

1.3% Zhirinovsky (who is dead)"

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1663222792605630464

https://russianfield.com/300days

Not a lot, but still higher than other non-Putin candidates (except Prigozhin, who is now dead)

[viralpraxis]

I believe it does not represent the actual state of affairs.

Firstly, many people wouldn't say they'd vote for Navalny -- that's just against the self-preservation instincts.

Secondly, there are many people who are not "in love" with Navalny, his team and personal views, but still think he'd be a much better president than Putin.

I'd personally estimate the count of people here (in Russia) that are neutral/neutral-positive/positive about Navalny at 15-25%. And much higher at hightech giants and top univesities at Moscow/Saint-Petersburg.

[squarefoot]

So, except Putin, all others are either dead or rendered inoffensive and likely be killed as well after the public forgets about them.

[r721]

Just for clarity: I copy-pasted from a tweet, the list is longer on the actual chart from the poll: https://thumb.tildacdn.com/tild3833-6564-4031-b932-623365633...

[squarefoot]

Thanks, the link provided didn't work for me, but I forgot I've twitter and other online services redirected through libredirect and many of its endpoint stopped working a while ago. My fault.

[ivan_gammel]

Plenty of other candidates are spoilers that add legitimacy to elections. They may have some popular support, but time to time they make statements or do something that portrays them as clowns to the majority, reducing their electoral base and making them not dangerous to Putin.

[RetroTechie]

So, with Putin out of the picture he'd be leading the pack?

[r721]

It's hard to predict. It probably depends on how exactly Putin would be "out of the picture".

[petre]

I'm sure the FSB has the likes of Naryshin, Patrushev or Bortnikov up their sleeve with Putin out of the picture. Putin was virtually unknown when he was first appoined as president. Win a Chechen war by throwing countless human and material resources at it, then you're wildly popular. If you come to think about it, Russia has only gained territories during Putin's leadership.

The political landscape in Russia is basically this: United Russia, commies and ultranationalists. All of these are pro war with the exception of a single party with a single member in the Duma, which opposes the war due to economic reasons.