[toomuchtodo]

Okay ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ If you want to bet $10k on the success of this, outline the success criteria and deadline for evaluation of the bet and we'll spin up a Long Bet [1].

Stripe talks a lot, while TranferWise (among others) gets shit done wrt cross border payments on real rails. Crypto is slowly dying while central banks raise rates globally, making the casino attempt at yield unpalatable (most crypto trading was gambling). Africa, for example, is going digital payments faster than some developed countries [2] [3].

Stripe's problem (along with Visa and Mastercard for that matter) is that developing countries are leapfrogging developed world financial infra, and owning it themselves to prevent "light colonization" of this critical financial infra. This compresses the global TAM for the for profit folks who are skimming off rails volume.

[1] https://longbets.org/

[2] https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-i...

[3] https://papss.com/

[rvz]

Of course, moving the goal-posts are we?

> "Stripe talks a lot, while TranferWise (among others) gets shit done wrt cross border payments on real rails."

Stripe has also shipped theirs though and it is available and is in use. [0] So have Moneygram [1], Visa [2], Checkout.com [3], PayPal [4] and beyond payments, Walmart Canada is using one right now. [5]

The fact is, they are using blockchains and they are not going away (or dying) anytime soon, like it or not.

[0] https://stripe.com/gb/use-cases/crypto

[1] https://stellar.org/products-and-tools/moneygram

[2] https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.rele...

[3] https://www.checkout.com/solutions/crypto

[4] https://www.paypal.com/us/digital-wallet/manage-money/crypto...

[5] https://hbr.org/2022/01/how-walmart-canada-uses-blockchain-t...

[toomuchtodo]

I don't believe crypto is the future of payments, domestic or international. That's my thesis, and I'm fairly confident in it. If I'm wrong, after evaluating all available data, such is the peril of attempting to predict the future. I will eat crow and say I was wrong if that is the future we arrive at.

PIX in Brazil and UPI in India are evidence of what instant payment systems do to incumbent instant (credit card) rails. Central banks are coming for cross border payments next. For profit firms need profit and investors. Central banks (or other nation state monetary policy orgs with similar functions) simply need mandates. Congress told the Fed to build FedNow (to prevent private/for profit instant rails from gating access), and they did, because they were told to.

Visa, Paypal, and others in the space have an existential crisis, no different than Intuit with the IRS preparing to offer filing for free. A Paypal stablecoin? Are you kidding me? Why would you use that versus an FDIC insured deposit account or a money market fund?

https://archive.ph/vh3Dh | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/brazilian...

https://www.livemint.com/economy/indians-pick-upi-over-debit...

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2693~8d4e5804...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37920633

https://www.paypal.com/us/legalhub/cryptocurrencies-tnc?loca...

https://paxos.com/stablecoin-terms-conditions/

[rvz]

None of the examples you mentioned are even world-wide, given that you can't use UPI in Japan, or FedNow can't be used outside of the US or PIX outside of Brazil so are totally useless for users outside of those countries.

These 'rails' are just meant for the introduction of a CBDC in their respective countries which will just have the same issues that Nigeria's eNaira 'CBDC' had which once that was tried, it was a complete failure. [0] [1] which UPI and PIX will have the same problems and will be no different.

[0] https://business.cornell.edu/hub/2023/04/28/nigerias-enaira-...

[1] https://www.pymnts.com/cbdc/2022/nigeria-cuts-atm-cash-withd...

[toomuchtodo]

You seem to be very pro crypto, so I don't believe we're going to find middle ground. Appreciate the debate regardless!