| I don't believe crypto is the future of payments, domestic or international. That's my thesis, and I'm fairly confident in it. If I'm wrong, after evaluating all available data, such is the peril of attempting to predict the future. I will eat crow and say I was wrong if that is the future we arrive at. PIX in Brazil and UPI in India are evidence of what instant payment systems do to incumbent instant (credit card) rails. Central banks are coming for cross border payments next. For profit firms need profit and investors. Central banks (or other nation state monetary policy orgs with similar functions) simply need mandates. Congress told the Fed to build FedNow (to prevent private/for profit instant rails from gating access), and they did, because they were told to. Visa, Paypal, and others in the space have an existential crisis, no different than Intuit with the IRS preparing to offer filing for free. A Paypal stablecoin? Are you kidding me? Why would you use that versus an FDIC insured deposit account or a money market fund? https://archive.ph/vh3Dh | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-23/brazilian... https://www.livemint.com/economy/indians-pick-upi-over-debit... https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2693~8d4e5804... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37920633 https://www.paypal.com/us/legalhub/cryptocurrencies-tnc?loca... https://paxos.com/stablecoin-terms-conditions/ |
These 'rails' are just meant for the introduction of a CBDC in their respective countries which will just have the same issues that Nigeria's eNaira 'CBDC' had which once that was tried, it was a complete failure. [0] [1] which UPI and PIX will have the same problems and will be no different.
[0] https://business.cornell.edu/hub/2023/04/28/nigerias-enaira-...
[1] https://www.pymnts.com/cbdc/2022/nigeria-cuts-atm-cash-withd...