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by smcin 977 days ago
Translation: "limited city use in [selected] cities" seems to mean:

- no driving on freeway with passengers (that alone is a huge limitation. You couldn't get to most major airports (in any sensible time) under that limitation. Add in trucks, rush-hour, ripple congestion, lane-splitting motorcyclists.) But presumably also, Waymo and Cruise don't want to pick an all-out war with human drivers working for Uber. Not yet.

- if a driverless car gets confused or can't handle a situation on a city street, it can slow and stop completely and block traffic (and wait for emergency responders to intervene, or wait minutes/hours for remote human driver to override), which is "merely" an annoyance to locals. Whereas doing that on a freeway could injure or kill large numbers of people.

- "selected cities" seems to currently only be southwestern and southern US (SF, PHX, LA, AUS), warm and mostly clear skies, nothing regularly getting near a bad freeze or with bad rain/ snow/ slush/ storms/ gusts/ visibility/ unpredictable ice and skidding [0].

- only cities with well-maintained signage, roads, road markings which can be imaged reliably etc. This is an implicit limit on the locality's income and tax base.

- the recent Cruise secondary incident (near-fatality from a hit-and-run caused by a human-driven car) in SF and other incidents with pedestrians, cyclists and human drivers. "Just fix a few minor issues around the edges" will have a different meaning if you're a pedestrian, cyclist or transit user near a high-traffic street. This could easily become a political issue in some localities. Or maybe driverless will only be allowed in bus lanes or certain lanes of certain streets, or at certain times of day, or not near school pickup/dropoff, or through residential areas (like in 2011 when there were deaths of pedestrians in East Palo Alto residential areas due to drivers rat-running, exacerbated by the rush-hour to Facebook and on 101[1]).

[0]: https://waymo.com/faq/

[1]: https://paloaltoonline.com/news/2011/09/28/girl-7-killed-in-...

2 comments

And with all these restrictions on something as simple as intra-city transport, keep in mind the massive investment in autonomous vehicles 5-10 years ago was toward the ultimate goal of replacing humans in long-haul trucking and related logistics. Even if Waymo could place fully autonomous taxis into every city in America, that consolation prize wouldn't nearly make up for the shortfall of not taking over the logistics industry as was hoped.

City-bound autonomous vehicles are still far away for the reasons you point out, but autonomous long-haul trucking is back to being a sci-fi pipe dream at this point.

I haven't been following autonomous long-haul trucking, why is it "back to being a sci-fi pipe dream at this point"? Again, is that primarily a technology vs safety story, or is it a political issue due to organized pushback from sections that oppose it?

(also does anyone have current data on the viable market size of driverless rideshare vs driverless delivery vs drone delivery vs helicopter taxis vs autonomous long-haul trucking)?

> "Even if Waymo could place fully autonomous taxis into every city in America, that consolation prize wouldn't nearly make up for the shortfall of not taking over the logistics industry as was hoped."

I want to decouple discussion to what's actually technically and politically achievable (within say 5 yrs), versus whatever story Waymo was telling its shareholders 5-10 yrs ago.

> I haven't been following autonomous long-haul trucking, why is it "back to being a sci-fi pipe dream at this point"? Again, is that primarily a technology vs safety story, or is it a political issue due to organized pushback from sections that oppose it?

I think it's a mix.

Waymo cancelled their self driving truck division recently to focus on ride share[0].

They're most likely feeling push back from someone over self driving trucks, but I wonder if the bigger thing is liability and dangers around the weight it would be hauling. They already have had one of their trucks be ran off the road by another semi already and haven't released ANY statements about it.[1]

[0]: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/07/doubling-down-on-waymo-one.ht...

[1]: https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/01/behind-the-scenes-of-waymo...

> goal of replacing humans in long-haul trucking and related logistics

I am wondering if it is reasonable goal, what share driver's payroll takes from total logistics expenses(vehicle + maintenance cost, gasoline, last mile logistics: loading/unloading truck and storage, delivering package to final recipient).

Why is long-haul a pipe dream now. It seems to me that long-haul is a simpler problem than city driving. Did some insurmountable problem pop up that I haven't heard about?
I have the same question
> southwestern and southern US (SF, ...)

I never considered SF as southwestern, but Wikipedia says you're correct

I don't think so. According to:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States#Reg...

the southwestern US extends to the Sonoran and Mojave deserts on the west side.

It lists the largest cities of the southwest as Phoenix, Las Vegas, El Paso, Albuquerque, and Tucson.

SF is not in there...

Ah, thanks, I was misled by the graphic.
I was at first too. I'd like to update it to reflect the actual region, rather than merely highlighting all the states that contain parts of the region, but sadly don't have any kind of mapping tools to do so...
Ok, "western/southwestern/southern". My point was clear.