[JumpCrisscross]

"Labor shortages can be eased by funneling more people into the labor force or making the current workforce more productive. That can be done through immigration; outsourcing more work overseas; tapping underutilized labor pools such as people with disabilities and the formerly incarcerated; and improving productivity through automation, training and refining business and production processes."

Another underutilized labor pool: parents. Specifically, mothers. Universal childcare couldn't come quickly enough.

[toomuchtodo]

Surprisingly, “paying existing workers more” didn’t make the list. Businesses are unhappy their margins are going to compress with the go forward cost of labor, and taxpayers are unhappy they’ll have to pay more to compensate workers providing government funded services (healthcare, education, schoolbus drivers, etc). The US has hit its “labor credit limit” and is cranky about it.

Example: https://www.eastidahonews.com/2023/09/idahos-direct-care-wor...

> The committee heard follow-ups to a February report issued by the Office of Performance Evaluations that found Idaho’s direct care workforce is short about 3,000 workers compared to national staffing levels. That report identified low pay as an issue for the program primarily paid by Idaho Medicaid, whose rates “do not support sustainable competitive wages for direct care workers,” and create a “wage cap,” the report found. The typical nursing assistant in direct care made $14.16 per hour and could earn 39% more by leaving direct care, the report said.

There is no labor shortage, there is simply no longer surplus labor (due to covid deaths combined with structural demographics) enabling churn that kept wages low.

[JumpCrisscross]

> “paying existing workers more” didn’t make the list

That falls under tapping underutilized labor pools. You're trying to take someone not working and convincing them to work.

There's about 8% slack in labor-force participation to late-nineties peaks [1]. But per the article, some of that is retirement. It's not a long-term solution to rely on paying retirees to come back into the workforce.

When an individual company (or state) faces a shortage of workers, it's often due to pay. Idaho should pay its nurses more. When an entire economy faces a shortage, it's something more structural.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

[toomuchtodo]

As long as there are workers 18-65 who are willing to work at a clearing price who aren't currently working because that price isn't offered, there is labor available. Agree relying on retirees to remain in the workforce isn't a long term solution; there is no long term solution when you've built your economy on an ever expanding labor force that is no longer ever expanding. The data does not show we are out of workers entirely, but there are jobs workers are unwilling to take at the current wage on offer.

Will we face a structural labor shortage causing unreasonably low unemployment rates and labor marketplace friction in the near term? Very possibly depending on 55+ workforce exit rates and immigration flow. Are we there yet? I don't believe the data shows that.

[syndicatedjelly]

> There is no labor shortage, there is simply no longer surplus labor (due to covid deaths combined with structural demographics) enabling churn that kept wages low.

There are a number of mental hoops that one must jump through for this statement to make any sense. A lack of surplus labor is what exactly, if not a labor shortage? How is a high supply not the exact same thing as a labor surplus?

[peyton]

It’s about proximity to the money printer unfortunately. Triffin dilemma. Like it or not, we’re not sending cash to nursing assistants in Idaho. If they wanted more money, they could’ve flipped houses in 2020–2022.

[friend_and_foe]

Please god no. We went through this already, it halved wages and made single income households a luxury. I personally don't want some stranger raising my kids for me, I want it to be me and my wife doing it. I don't want to delegate rearing of my children to the state, looking at educational attainment in aggregate, they're really bad at it. I don't care about a labor crisis, I care about my family. If wages go up, good. You're not taking my wife and making her your secretary or putting her on a factory floor to keep my pay down.

[JumpCrisscross]

> I don't want to delegate rearing of my children to the state

Okay? Then don't. Universal doesn't mean mandatory.

Are you suggesting we should reverse womens' rights in the workplace so you can keep a particular family model?

> If wages go up, good.

Wages don't go up infinitely. They go up, then you run out of workers, and raising wages further doesn't bring more labour to the table. At that point, you cut services and increase prices to temper demand.

[Danjoe4]

Bad faith interpretation. Clearly there are benefits to having a parent dedicated solely to child rearing. I do not think a daycare is the optimal environment for child rearing. The issue here is not women's rights but the responsibility we have for our children.

[JumpCrisscross]

> Bad faith interpretation

Sorry, I am having trouble finding a gentler parsing of "we went through this already, it halved wages and made single income households a luxury." To what does this refer to if not women entering the labour force?

> do not think a daycare is the optimal environment for child rearing

I don't either. But the choice isn't caring parents or daycare. It's the number of parents who feel forced by the cost of childcare into being reluctant parents. Or single parents in economic insecurity, or worse, forced negligence.

[ramblenode]

> It's the number of parents who feel forced by the cost of childcare into being reluctant parents.

If childcare is such a significant cost that a family would make the economically rational decision to forgo the potential income of one parent, then the work of a stay-at-home parent is economically valuable, and moving them into the wage economy would not increase overall economic productivity (your original contention).

> Sorry, I am having trouble finding a gentler parsing of "we went through this already, it halved wages and made single income households a luxury." To what does this refer to if not women entering the labour force?

What I believe the parent is referring to is the lack of change in household wealth from a time when most households had a single earner to now when most have two full-time earners. Household wealth has remained stagnant for decades despite more overall hours being worked by parents. The gains from increased labor force participation have been eaten by higher costs and stagnant wages. More money is moving but the average family hasn't seen their wealth increase.

[rayiner]

> what does this refer to if not women entering the labour force?

It was a reference to women having to enter the workforce due to inflation. Only a little over half of women want to work outside the home: https://news.gallup.com/poll/267737/record-high-women-prefer.... For women with children under 18, only 45% want to work while 50% want to be homemakers.

The fact we’re talking about “universal childcare” while ignoring the equally large if not larger demand women have for staying at home shows our warped priorities. Instead of universal childcare, we should just pay families for children and let them decide whether to use the money for childcare or to enable one parent to stay home.

[hotpotamus]

I just figured I'd weigh in as a childless single man and say I'd rather not work outside my home either.

[toomuchtodo]

> The fact we’re talking about “universal childcare” while ignoring the equally large if not larger demand women have for staying at home shows our warped priorities. Instead of universal childcare, we should just pay families for children and let them decide whether to use the money for childcare or to enable one parent to stay home.

It would be interesting to see a direct cash transfer longitudinal experiment where you pay families for a parent to stay home and provide care for childrearing vs universal childcare, to see what that does to fertility rates and wellbeing of both care provider parent and the children being raised.

It seems so incredibly silly and shortsighted to be offering up free childcare to enable a parent to work when they could be working at home (if they choose!) raising their kid(s).

[JumpCrisscross]

> Instead of universal childcare, we should just pay families for children

This is fine, as long as it’s cash and not a tax credit. I always imagined a universal childcare program being administered by states to be given a block grant by Washington. Most states would simply offer vouches/credits. Some would want to run it themselves. But in no case would the federal government be opening direct care—that is simply unprecedented.

[waynesonfire]

> Wages don't go up infinitely. They go up, then you run out of workers, and raising wages further doesn't bring more labour to the table. At that point, you cut services and increase prices to temper demand.

wow, what a great problem to have. how common is it to encounter this issue? Amazon warehouse workers? Did they increase wages?

[JumpCrisscross]

> how common is it to encounter this issue?

It's common in regulated professions where entry is gate kept.

To be clear, I'm not convinced we're in a general labor crisis. (Automation should release a lot of supply.) But claiming the concept is mythological is historically inaccurate. (See: raging inflation in mining towns and settlements, which were disconnected from large labour markets.)

> Amazon warehouse workers? Did they increase wages?

Yes [1]. And it's working in that they're managing to hire some people [2]. But productivity per employee is going down, which is directly feeding into increased prices to consumers.

[1] hhttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/19/amazon-adding-250000-workers...

[2] https://gadallon.substack.com/p/amazons-holiday-shopping-lis...

[uoaei]

> Then don't. Universal doesn't mean mandatory.

Ah yes, the market fundamentalist argument of "market forces don't actually affect you". Wonderful, amazing, very good-faith.

[WalterBright]

> Universal childcare couldn't come quickly enough

That requires more workers to care for the kids.

[magicalhippo]

Right, but at least here in Norway the rule[1] is that in kindergartens there should be one adult per three kids under 3 years old, and one adult per 6 kids above three years old. There's also requirements for pedagogical staffing so it works out to be a bit more than that, but not much.

Following such a scheme, on average you free up more workers by sending kids to kindergarten.

[1]: https://lovdata.no/dokument/NL/lov/2005-06-17-64/KAPITTEL_6#...