[oblio]

Europe's population (and EU's, if you compare the sum of current member state populations) is basically flat since 1995.

Ergo the increase in cases means an increase in rate.

[sneak]

If growth (ie the first derivative) is flat (which means a steady rate of increase) then an increase of cases does not mean an increase in rate.

[oblio]

Thank you for the 10th grade math lesson, I've edited my previous comment.