[toyg]

Anything can happen in the same way as it happened with Maastricht and the Euro: cooperating countries would just go forward with new entities that inherit the previous institutions, dissolving or mothballing old entities. In the long run, the hard core inevitably wins.

Anything that includes France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, will inevitably drag everyone else one way or another.

[closewith]

> Anything that includes France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, will inevitably drag everyone else one way or another.

Maybe so, but whatever it became wouldn't be the EU and wouldn't include most of the current members states. It's obviously still an impossibility, as there is no appetite in any of those four countries for a federal EU.

[toyg]

You're making up your "obvious" reality there. EU federalism was born in France and remains strong in the other three countries I mentioned - it might not be a clear majority at the moment, but it's definitely a popular idea among large swaths of the population. The evolution of EU structures undeniably goes in that direction year after year, with stronger and stronger federal institutions.

[closewith]

> You're making up your "obvious" reality there.

There has never been even a hint of a popular federal movement in any of the countries which you mentioned, so I don't think I am.

> EU federalism was born in France and remains strong in the other three countries I mentioned - it might not be a clear majority at the moment, but it's definitely a popular idea among large swaths of the population.

That's a bold claim that I'm sure you'll be able to back up?

Honestly, I think you've allowed your own preferences and wishful thinking to cloud your judgement here.

[toyg]

> There has never been even a hint of a popular federal movement in any of the countries which you mentioned

It depends on your definition of "popular movement", but there have been plenty of popular leaders arguing for federalization, from Briand onwards. Just recently: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/german-...

> a bold claim that I'm sure you'll be able to back up?

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14651165221101505 - this paper explicitly sets out to find non-federalist views, reporting that 44% hold "traditional" views (federalists and separatists), which would indicate federalism is about 20-25% of the population - that's a "large swath", in my book. And that's pure-federalism; the generic support that can likely be turned is much higher.

I mean, that's just a random source. The news focus on anti-europe trends these days because, for so long, pro-europe ones were the mainstream default.

[closewith]

Your source doesn't at all support your claim. Meanwhile, there is no indication in any polling that any of the countries you mention have even single-digit support for federalisation.

As I said, you've either blinded yourself or you're intentionally dishonest.

[toyg]

Lol, keep talking. Meanwhile, actual federalists continue doing the work set up by Brand, Schuman, De Gasperi etc, almost a century ago. For example: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-histor...

[tpm]

Yet several EU members still don't use the Euro and will not use it for the foreseeable future. So the hard core didn't win?

[toyg]

Technically, all of them are required to join once their structural problems are solved - it's not that they chose not to adopt but rather that they were left out to avoid compromising the currency. Most of them have a clear political will to join the eurozone. The only real exception is Sweden, which effectively enjoys a de-facto opt-out like Denmark, for historical reasons (although they are increasingly under pressure to join).

Regardless, the hard core has won because the Euro is now a cornerstone of EU policies, whether the non-EZ countries like it or not. Every project, every accounting in the Union is now done in Euros.

[tpm]

> Technically, all of them are required to join once their structural problems are solved - it's not that they chose not to adopt

Denmark has a real opt-out. They chose not to adopt in a referendum.

> Most of them have a clear political will to join the eurozone.

No they absolutely don't have that. Even leaving out Sweden and Denmark - it's a toxic political issue in Czechia even though de facto euro is widely used in the business. And while Hungary has currently no chance to fulfill the technical conditions, there is also no political will to join until Orban is in power (and that will be a long time). The ruling party in Poland (PiS) is also explicitly against the euro, as is majority of the population.

> the hard core has won because the Euro is now a cornerstone of EU policies

The Euro won through merit - it just makes sense to use a common currency in the common market.

[toyg]

> Denmark has a real opt-out. They chose not to adopt in a referendum.

I know. My sentence was meant to highlight how Sweden is de-facto in a similar position, if not de-jure.

> it's a toxic political issue in Czechia even though de facto euro is widely used in the business.

Translation: it's happening no matter what.

Hungary and Poland are currently suffering from backwards political headwinds. In the past they would have happily joined (but couldn't). But again, like in Chzechia, it's basically happening de-facto no matter what. Once sanity prevails, governments typically find that having multi-currency systems is a headache.

[tpm]

It's not going to happen in any of those countries for the next at least 10 years. If ever.