Ask HN: What resources do you use to understand financial markets?

[RestlessAPI]

I basically want to be able to watch CNBC and understand everything they are saying and be able to formulate my own educated opinion.

I want to be able to cut through all the sensationalized noises about how the market is going to or not going to crash.

For example, its Aug 8th 2023, and US trade with China is in decline. How do people know this? How can I fact check this myself? How can I formulate my own educated opinion, so I know if this is a giant nothing burger or if it's time to liquidate my retirement account?

There are so many hucksters and snake oil sales men in this space that I don't even know where to begin to look.

So HN, how did you learn the financial markets?

[bombcar]

I read bogleheads.org and learn to ignore the financial porn like CNBC, they make lots of noise but don't have anything causal to say.

[loveparade]

The question is too broad to answer meaningfully, akin to asking "How do I learn engineering" - You wouldn't recommend the same resources to someone wanting to learn Software Engineering to someone wanting to learn Chemical Engineering. These may have some overlap here and there, but they are quite different.

The specific example you mentioned IMO falls more under Economics and International Relations than under Financial Markets. You could start with Sowell's "Basic Economics" in this case for a very high-level overview that skips all the math.

In general, looking at curricula of universities is a good way to go about it. There are plenty of free courses out there.

[tacostakohashi]

> For example, its Aug 8th 2023, and US trade with China is in decline. How do people know this? How can I fact check this myself?

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_p...

The government keeps stats on such things, and a lot of what you see on "the news" is just regurgitated press releases/announcements from the corresponding authoritative sources.

[nocoder]

Matt Levine's newsletters

[imakwana]

Bogleheads.org forum is the gold standard for index investors.

TL;DR: Mostly the advice is to ignore the news, most of the information (including the news shown on CNBC) is already baked into the current prices (efficient markets). Stay the course!

[thedevindevops]

Magic 8 ball

[kypro]

Everything in financial markets is highly nuanced. So first thing to say is don't look for simple answers. Also remember that when narratives become highly census that's typically when the risk of the majority being off-side is the highest.

For example, a claim like: "US trade with China is in decline" could be for various factors – is that because of lockdowns, China's slowing economy, geopolitical relations? Etc... You also have to ask geopolitical questions here. If China's trade is structurally declining with the US might they take actions to restore that trading relationship? If they don't what might the consequences be? And could these consequences be reasonably accepted by China's leadership or may their hand be forced to take action regardless of their current opinion?

CNBC can be useful, but is not a good place to form opinions because almost everyone on there has bias. CEOs have their stock price to pump. CIOs have their funds to pump. Economists often have some political or economic spin they're looking to push. Economics also isn't reported on great by the media. If you read an economics article on say CNN or the Guardian you'll typically get something that's very dumbed down and misses all the important nuance. It may also be biased. I find FT and Reuters are slightly better, but you still need to be careful.

My advice would be to simply disconnect from financial media either literally or mentally. Admittedly I often watch CNBC but I just consider it entertainment, I don't actually weight anything that is said there.

Instead I tend to look at official data. Sites like Fred (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/), BLS (https://www.bls.gov/), SEC (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/), etc.. You just need to Google around, you'll find reliable data for most things you're interested in.

Then when you have the data start asking questions... So as an example I know I'm thinking a lot about public debt at the moment. I'm trying to understand what level rates would need to get to before major economies begin to struggle with servicing their debt, what the consequences of this would be, and what could cause that to occur? Could rates in the UK hit say 8% if nat gas, oil prices and food commodities jump in price again over the next year? What would happen to the housing market if this happened? Could the government service their debt if rates remained high? Would taxes need to increase to service that debt compounding the economic pain? In such an event might inflation just be accepted as the only solution? Then importantly, how should I position my finances given risks I see?

I find I have lots of weird opinions on economics for this reason which I can back up fairly well. I'm often wrong, but I also often see things before others. It's fun too.

It takes a very long time to learn this stuff to any competency though... Most things in economics tend to be complicated, interconnected and counterintuitive. I still feel like I understand nothing.

Learn the basics first you don't know that though... If you don't understand and can't account for business cycles for example most questions you ask will be meaningless.