[kneebonian]

> Last October, a Bloomberg economic model said that the odds of a U.S. recession this year were 100 percent.

Maybe we're not officially in a "recession" but you can't look around and tell me most people feel the economy is doing super great right now.

[yardie]

The economy is doing super great and that is the problem. The old trick was to pump up the rates until unemployment increases and demand drops. They tried it and it's not working.

[mensetmanusman]

Labor market is too tight, everyone wants workers.

[yardie]

Yeah, there were a lot of near retirement workers who had their 401k/pensions wiped out by the financial crisis. I've met quite a few who pushed back retirement 7-10 years to rebuild their savings. Now that bond rates are up, they're headed for the exits en masse.

The industry that wasn't affected by a large demographic of near retirees was technology. Because age discrimination was built into the culture. Not a lot of old programmers sticking around. They get RIFed right outta here. So while there is a shortage on teachers, nurses, trades, and police there is a surplus of junior and mid-career tech workers.

[the_only_law]

Then why the hell aren’t they responding to my applications.

[mensetmanusman]

On average the labor market can be tight while other areas can have a surplus of talent.

Sometimes this requires a reframing of what one’s talents are when applying for jobs outside what one might consider a normal window.

Also, I might recommend getting a recruiter to work for you to throw more mud on the wall so to speak.

[lotsofpulp]

Lots of fast food/hotels/nursing homes/transportation/etc businesses will respond to applications.

[the_only_law]

Hell I’ve tried those just to get some income coming in, but nothing. They claim “fast hiring process”, and then it’s two weeks later and I just see the same damn positions reposted.

[lotsofpulp]

Interesting. There might be an incentive to reject overqualified candidates who the hiring manager might deem to much of a waste of time to train if they are likely to end up leaving within a short amount of time. But I was just making a tongue in cheek comment about how different roles experience different supply and demand.

[mensetmanusman]

Tried government?

[twiddling]

something something immigration reform

[jfengel]

"The economy" is at least two separate things.

One is the sum total of goods and services. Measuring it is always a bit dicey but the metrics are doing reasonably well.

The second is how much money people have, in terms of its ability to buy stuff. That can be subjective, especially when the objective measures are contradictory, as they are now.

Ideally the two would be somewhat correlated. When the first definition is doing great and the second isn't, people get cranky because their work isn't bringing them wealth and stability. That is a systemic problem that goes even beyond today's economy.

[dragonwriter]

> but you can't look around and tell me most people feel the economy is doing super great right now.

Consumer confidence (Conference Board) present situation index is the highest its been in two years, even though not at the extreme highs it was sitting at pre-COVID, but, yeah, I can tell you exactly that, with pretty strong evidence.

Are most people in a precarious situation as is the norm in a mostly-capitalist economy? Yes. But that’s part of the long-term baseline.