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by bobthepanda 1054 days ago
People said the same about Japan. The '80s and '90s was a bunch of media-fueled "the Japanese will run the world" hysteria.

Japan is a technical powerhouse but that doesn't inevitably lead to ending hegemony. It requires a lot of other work too.

1 comments

China has 1.2 billion people, I feel like it is basically an inevitability at this point.
1.2 billion _old_ people. While quantity has a quality all its own, in this case the demographics are not what you want to see if you are predicting long-term Chinese growth just based on population.
Median age China, 2022: 38.5

Median age USA, 2022: 38.9

Look at the actual age distributions rather than collapsing the data into a single number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta...

I see a country with triple the young people we do.
You should be measuring that population as a % of their total population. Not sure why you're comparing absolute numbers.

China has triple the young people we do, but quadruple the old people that depend on the young people.

It's a mistake to think in terms of the US only. Because unlike China the US doesn't think that way. And if you include the core part of Team America, it's even steven.