[pyrale]

> And the power having been sold and used at a price that did not fund those costs, they are well and truly screwed.

I don't know where you read that, but that's nowhere in actual reasonable sources.

Actual serious sources [1] report funding is being set aside for dismantling, which may be significantly eased by the fact that these reactor are actually going to serve for longer than expected.

[1], in french: https://www.ccomptes.fr/system/files/2020-03/20200304-rappor...

[Zigurd]

https://energypost.eu/how-much-will-it-really-cost-to-decomm...

Whereas Germany has set aside €38 billion to decommission 17 nuclear reactors, and the UK Nuclear Decommissioning Authority estimates that clean-up of UK’s 17 nuclear sites will cost between €109‒250 billion over the next 120 years, France has set aside only €23 billion to decommissioning its 58 reactors.

That's about 6X less than Germany, per reactor. When is the last time that kind of project came in under budget?

[pyrale]

The article is from 2017, yet reports number from 2013. In 2017, the total provisioning was 28~Bn€. Also French reactor are still working (and producing returns), as opposed to German reactors.

If you focus on dismantling costs, the example of Maine Yankee [1]: is way less dramatic: "In January 2002 Maine Yankee put the total decommissioning cost at $635 million."

The number provided for UK reactors is ludicrous compared to existing dismantling costs, and simply factors in 150 years of dry cask storage, whereas France has a deep storage facility on the way.

Also the author, Paul Dorfman, is an anti-nuclear proponent, it's not surprising to see this kind of numbers from him.

[1]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dismantling-nucle...

[cycomanic]

> whereas France has a deep storage facility on the way.

That has been "on the way" for how many years exactly? The reality is that after almost > 50 years of nuclear power we have exactly one long-term storage facility world-wide which has been commissioned last year (Finland). And somehow that was hailed as a success.

Also what do you think the storage cost for deep storage facilities are?

[pyrale]

> That has been "on the way" for how many years exactly?

Research is completed, we're currently in the process of anti-nuclear groups using their legal recourse options. This project is not time-critical, so there is no reason to speed that up.

> Also what do you think the storage cost for deep storage facilities are?

Initial investment estimates are between €8bn and €16bn [1].

[1], in french: https://www.ccomptes.fr/system/files/2019-07/20190704-rappor...

[Zigurd]

The numbers are from the respective national nuclear authorities.

Also, as of 2019, the ongoing cost of securing spent fuel at Maine Yankee is about $10M per year. At what point does the spent fuel storage there age out and need replacement?

[pyrale]

> The numbers are from the respective national nuclear authorities.

And, when it comes to France, the author chose to use 4 year-old numbers.

> At what point does the spent fuel storage there age out and need replacement?

As I said, France doesn't plan to store its spent fuel in dry casks. The current plan is to store it in a deep-storage facility similar to Onkalo.

[Kon5ole]

>>> And the power having been sold and used at a price that did not fund those costs, they are well and truly screwed. >I don't know where you read that, but that's nowhere in actual reasonable sources.

We know for a fact that France nationalized EDF last year and the debt is at currently 65 bn euros and growing. Since the company has been nationalized, the taxpayers are on the hook.

I wouldn't personally go so far as to say they're "screwed" but it's a documented economic fact that nuclear power in France has been sold at a loss, and still is.

Note that this debt is already real, whereas the cost of decommissioning and storing waste for hundreds of years is guesswork no matter which source you use. Operations in France are proven not to cover costs even before we get to that!

[pyrale]

The debt doesn't come from unit costs, EDF has been profitable for decades with the current rates.

[Kon5ole]

65 billions in debt and having to be saved by the state means you are not profitable. It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point.

This debt is already a reality - and growing with interest rates if nothing else - and we haven't even gotten to the many billions more that have to be invested in the beat-up old plants to keep them running.

We also don't know how many billions more that have to be paid to decommission them and for storing the waste. Nobody knows this yet.

Nuclear power has always been a strategic choice, with extensive international treaties and special conditions in place to make it a reality despite it not being financially viable in the traditional sense. The costs have been socialised and pushed to future generations, deliberately.

Now that several decades have passed, we are the generations that have to start paying.

[pyrale]

> It doesn't matter where the costs come from in this case, they are not covered by the money EDF has accumulated from selling power, which was the point.

That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue.

That's why unit costs are important, that's what dictates whether the activity is reasonable, and how much debt can be supported by it.

> We also don't know how many billions more that have to be paid to decommission them and for storing the waste. Nobody knows this yet.

Plants have been decomissioned in the past already. Because of that, we have pretty reasonable estimates of how much dismantling costs. If you have specific points about why past dismantled structures are different from future ones, feel free to expose them. Otherwise, the "we don't know" discourse is basically FUD.

[Kon5ole]

>That by itself isn't an issue. Plenty of companies take on debt to invest, for instance. My company intends to take €40bn of new debt in the next decade or so, and our investors don't see it as an issue.

But that isn't the case here. When the debt causes you to be bailed out by the government, is is an issue, wouldn't you agree?

EDF isn't a car maker that has to invest in a transition to electric cars (or whatever), they are basically bankrupt. EDF needs _additional_ billions in order to invest in the future, separate from the billions of debt it already accumulated. Since the organisation is nationalised, that money will come from the taxpayers.

>Plants have been decomissioned in the past already. Because of that, we have pretty reasonable estimates of how much dismantling costs.

Which decommissioned reactor are you thinking of?

Most decommissioned reactors are part of plants that have other active reactors, so they are not actually dismantled. EDF has postponed final decommissioning for several of its closed reactors by 50 years, Berkeley in the UK is still ongoing, Vandellos 1 in Spain (closed since 1990) will commence final phase in 2028, Rancho Seco in California, closed in '89 still costs money today, and so on.

Apart from that, the "end result" for decommissioning projects are always "and then the federal government takes over from here". Meaning that the true costs are unknown even when the projects are actually completed.

This is not FUD, it's reasonable concerns based on observed realities. A discussion can be had about nuclear power anyway - it has merits too of course - but the concerns can't simply be brushed aside and ignored. They are based on reality.

[pyrale]

> But that isn't the case here. When the debt causes you to be bailed out by the government, is is an issue, wouldn't you agree?

EDF's current situation is an issue. My point, however, is that this is not related to electricity pricing, nuclear or not.

> Since the organisation is nationalised, that money will come from the taxpayers.

Yes, so what? France's general budget received tens of billions in dividends from EDF in recent years, would you say EDF saved as much for the taxpayer?

> Which decommissioned reactor are you thinking of?

maine Yankee, for instance.

> Apart from that, the "end result" for decommissioning projects are always "and then the federal government takes over from here".

That's unrelated to dismantling. This issue is about waste storage in the US.