If you look at nasdaq around the dotcom crash it also had a fake bounce before the real crash. Past doesn't predict the future but also no reason we couldn't be in a fake bounce now.
I think one difference with the dotcom situation is that everyone is now deeply reliant on digital and networked systems. The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on, but I'm not sure that this particular single historic data point is going to have predictive power
Inflation is going down and that means less consumption. That means worse profits. That means less jobs. We'll see but there's a reason even the FED models are predicting a recession in Q4/Q1.
I'm not saying there will not be a recession, specifically I wrote:
> The size of any market correction is not something I'm qualified to comment on
The person above me said that it might still get much worse, basing that on a rather different situation. All I said is that I would not use this specific reference data for setting future expectations in the current situation
Yes, there are basic technical patterns that are used to repeat (or not!) but as others say in the dotcom crash there were no real Internet/technology penetration into the society: dot com companies tried to create a market that didn't exist and required time to be builts (e.g. mobile phones). Once the technology "eats everything" we are part of a new ecosystem and sometimes we are humans using tools but in many other times it is tools (e.g. ads) that are using humans.
AI is having an impact in the markets, there is not question that ChatGPT inaugurates a new milestone even if at the end that AI is not so smart, it is very useful.
IMHO we, humans, are the bottleneck and slowing things down: matching a buyer with a seller is slow, it requires building trust and depends on culture. If you remove humans from some activities the economy will accelerate. That does not mean that the human race will be better as a whole but the money spped will rise and money will flow in the direction of removing humans when they could be replaced.
Errrr, have you seen the user count data on personal assistants, VR goggles, cryptocurrency? To say that not enough people use them given the capital expenditure is to say nothing.
Then you have the true superstars of money burning, like the startups that distribute VC money to customers (e.g. Uber, but there's a ton more).
Compared to today, no one was on the internet. Look up internet subscriber numbers from then.
There was no wifi.
There was no mobile data.
People were barely moving from dialup to high speed.
Cable modem was new. Adsl had just come out and was slow. Internet was not stable to be up and trusted all the time.
Businesses were not trusting their operations to SaaS.
E-commerce was tough, people didn’t trust credit cards online, and credit card processing was much harder to setup than today. There was nothing close to being as simple as Stripe. PayPal was it.
There were no huge social media networks, except for forums.
There was little to no advertising online, let alone advertising networks like today.
Discovery was an infant (Google was new), addressing markets was basic (little adtech).
Also keep in mind that across time there has been inflation eating away the value of that. $5K in 1999 is far more valuable than $5K today. So the price is actually much much lower today (in terms of a basket of goods you exchange for those shares)
