[jchw]

I'm trying to interpret what you said in a strong, faithful interpretation. To that end, when you say "surely it will improve", I assume what you mean is, it will improve with regards to being trustworthy enough to use in contexts where hallucination is considered to be a deal-breaker. What you seem to be pushing for is the much weaker interpretation that they'll get better at all, which is well, pretty obviously true. But that doesn't mean squat, so I doubt that's what you are saying.

On the other hand, the problem of getting people to trust AI in sensitive contexts where there could be a lot at stake is non-trivial, and I believe people will definitely demand better-than-human ability in many cases, so pointing out that humans hallucinate is not a great answer. This isn't entirely irrational either: LLMs do things that humans don't, and humans do things that LLMs don't, so it's pretty tricky to actually convince people that it's not just smoke and mirrors, that it can be trusted in tricky situations, etc. which is made harder by the fact that LLMs have trouble with logical reasoning[1] and seem to generally make shit up when there's no or low data rather than answering that it does not know. GPT-4 accomplishes impressive results with unfathomable amounts of training resources on some of the most cutting edge research, weaving together multiple models, and it is still not quite there.

If you want to know my personal opinion, I think it will probably get there. But I think in no way do we live in a world where it is a guaranteed certainty that language-oriented AI models are the answer to a lot of hard problems, or that it will get here really soon just because the research and progress has been crazy for a few years. Who knows where things will end up in the future. Laugh if you will, but there's plenty of time for another AI winter before these models advance to a point where they are considered reliable and safe for many tasks.

[1]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.11502

[dcow]

> What you seem to be pushing for is the much weaker interpretation that they'll get better at all, which is well, pretty obviously true. But that doesn't mean squat, so I doubt that's what you are saying.

I mean this is what I was saying. I just don't think that the technology has to become hallucination-free to be useful. So my bad if I didn't catch the implicit assumption that "any hallucination is a dealbreaker so why even care about security" angle of the post I initially responded to.

My take is simply just that "these things are going to be used more and more as they improve so we better start worrying about supply chain and provenance sooner than later". I strongly doubt hallucination is going to stop them from being used despite the skeptics, and I suspect hallucination is a problem of lack of context moreso than innate shortcomings, but I'm no expert on that front.

And I'm someone who's been asked to try and add AI to a product and had the effort ultimately fail because the model hallucinated at the wrong times... so I well understand the dynamics.