This is outright false[0] - 27% of Ontario's power is gas, with a possibility of 59% nuclear[1] but the nuclear infrastructure in Ontario is aging and shutdowns/refurbishments is pushing Ontario towards >50% gas (and imported coal/gas) as of this summer[2]. Further, per IESO[3] Ontario is facing a 2GW shortfall this August. Maybe if not mismanaged, Ontario could be an exporter - but the joke is that's not the case anymore
It’s not outright false you are looking at capacity, I am talking about actual output. The last year natural gas was 10% total output, the year before was 8%. Now I agree this has not been managed well, and we are in a worse place than we were on 2019. I didn’t realize how much worse off in the last couple years it got, but we are not in a power crunch, there will be no rolling blackouts.
Interested to know the source for that 10% number.
Using this tool I'm seeing 12 months consumption at 17.4% gas. Last 30 days 28.47% (61% capacity). Gas capacity has been phased out as base load.
https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON
Ontario will be dependent on 2000MW (~10% of demand) which has to come from areas also facing shortfalls. NERC puts the majority of the US as well as Ontario in "elevated risk in above-normal conditions".
https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power...
Rolling blackouts could happen in “extreme but plausible scenarios” like a "once in a decade" heat wave (NERC).
We're facing climate change temps, population growth strained infrastructure and phased out gas plants. I hope it doesn't happen, but the possibility is worth having a personal plan.