[scottLobster]

Unemployment is a lagging indicator for a recession, and credit card debt is also at an all time high.

Sure things could stay positive for a while longer, but there's a lot of headwinds on the horizon, more than I've seen in a while, and these headwinds are tangible, concrete, structural things we can put some numbers to, not just vague philosophical notions of "it can't go up forever" and "everything's overvalued". How big an impact it all makes and on what timescale we'll have to just wait and see, but I'm not leveraging up in this environment.

[gonzaloalvarez]

If you say ‘recession’ enough times, you’ll be right at some point. Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions…

[scottLobster]

I'm no expert, nor am I a permabear. I could be wrong, but for me it's the difference between "water's warmer than usual, high probability of severe hurricane" a few years ago and "there's a category 4 a few dozen miles off the coast, we're hoping it doesn't directly hit a major population center" today. It's possible the thing turns away completely and heads out to sea, but I wouldn't bet on it

[throw0101a]

> Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions…

The actual saying was a knock against stock traders:

> To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[20]

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...

[lamontcg]

This joke has also been proven wrong in 10/10 of the last recessions.

[temende]

Yup I agree, there's always the possibility of things turning south. I guess I just have more subjective confidence in the American economy than it sounds like you do.

[lr4444lr]

America is usually the healthiest patient in the hospice, economically speaking.