I'm no expert, nor am I a permabear. I could be wrong, but for me it's the difference between "water's warmer than usual, high probability of severe hurricane" a few years ago and "there's a category 4 a few dozen miles off the coast, we're hoping it doesn't directly hit a major population center" today. It's possible the thing turns away completely and heads out to sea, but I wouldn't bet on it
> Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions…
The actual saying was a knock against stock traders:
> To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[20]